Week 5 picks

Looking over the picks this season, looks like your safest plays have been to grab your father-law's-cash. Even in these tough economic times, your 401 (k) doesn't appear safe in the Almanac, either.

I'm allergic to the chalk this week, trying to rebound from back-to-back 2-3 showings the last two weeks. Conference and division play is featured on the slate, but the theme is home dogs. It's too tempting to go against this many of them.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

N.C. State +3.5 vs. Virginia Tech

This line dropped from 4 early in the week. One of the cardinal rules of picking against the spread is take a team that is an underdog at home following an outright win as a road underdog. That's precisely the situation the Wolfpack are in this week. Last week, they trounced Georgia Tech in Atlanta, 45-28, as 8-point dogs. Confidence should be sky high in Raleigh. Not to mention a 4-0 team getting points is tough to pass up.

Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. Hokies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 3.5-10. Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in October.

The Pick: N.C. State and grab the points

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank

Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

This moved from 3 early in the week. The Browns had a nice showing last week against Baltimore, most notably the 144 yards last week with a TD and 6.5 yards per carry by Peyton Hillis. The Bengals, conversely, won, but struggled at Carolina, one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Browns, while 0-3, have put up a fight in every game, losing by a combined 12 points. I wouldn't be surprised if they win this one outright.

Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games, 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games. Cincinnati is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games.

The Pick: Take the Browns and the points

Florida +8 at Alabama

This has come down from 9.5 early in the week. The Gators are 3-0 as underdogs under Urban Meyer, and haven't received points since the LSU game in 2007. What's more, they're getting more than a touchdown. Florida is the last SEC team to beat Alabama, in the 2008 SEC Championship game.

Since that loss, in 19 games, Alabama has outscored opponents 152-38 in the fourth quarter.

But the combination of Alabama's young secondary, which was exposed against Arkansas, and the ankle injury of DT Marcel Dareus have me thinking a late cover is possible. Alabama will likely win, but it'll be tough to beat the Gators by 10 points.

The Pick: Take the Gators and the points

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Penn State +7 at Iowa

While Penn State is 3-1, its wins are against Youngstown State, Kent State and Temple, and of course got beat by Alabama. The Nittany Lions are 1-3 against the number, and it's tough to pick a freshman QB to keep it close in his first Big Ten road game.

Iowa, meanwhile, lost its national championship hopes with a loss at Arizona. It's rolled otherwise over Eastern Illinois, Iowa State and Ball State. Iowa has a strong defense, and Penn State's offense has struggled, but look for a late cover as Iowa will relax with its first conference win in hand.

The underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings The Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games.

The Pick: Take the Nittany Lions and the points

Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Texas

Neither team has been great against the number this season. The Sooners have struggled to put back-to-back solid performances together. Texas, meanwhile, is trying to recover from last week's blowout loss to UCLA at home. The keys are Texas struggles to run the ball and stop the run. The Longhorns' rushing offense is 76th in the nation.

Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Sooners are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games.

The Pick: Boomer Sooner and the points

Last week: 2-3 ATS

Overall: 11-9 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 3-2

Piggy bank: 4-5

Father-in-law: 4-2