Week 3 picks

Went 3-2 last week, and am 7-3 on the young season. But this appears to be the toughest week to date. Here we go.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Utah State +4 vs. Fresno State

Fresno State has been increasingly overvalued among the general public, while Utah State is a bit underrated. Take the Aggies' opener at Oklahoma when they only lost 31-24, a much better result than Florida State (47-17) had last week, both in Norman.

The home team is 7-1 in the last eight games in the series, and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

Key stats: Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Bulldogs are 10-24 ATS in their last 34 conference games. Aggies are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Aggies are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.

The Pick: Utah State and take the points.

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank

Arkansas +2.5 at Georgia

Tough game to call because of the Dawgs' lackluster effort last week in Columbia, and the Hogs' first two opponents, Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe. Will Georgia bounce back defensively, and perform better against the pass than it did against Marcus Lattimore and the Gamecocks? Will Arkansas fare better than last year's 0-4 road record in the SEC?

While Mark Richt has openly labeled this a big game for his program, fans, players and coaches, it's easier to see Arkansas winning a shootout than the Dawgs out-scoring the Hogs for the second straight year. You could go with the more experienced quarterback, or the mounting pressure against Richt and his team, knowing an 0-2 start in the SEC is nearly insurmountable.

Key stats: Georgia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games following a straight up loss. Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

It could easily come down to a late field goal, and that edge goes to Georgia. But Ryan Mallett and Co. will put it out of reach before that.

The Pick: Arkansas and the points.

Auburn -7 vs. Clemson

The War Eagle Tigers are another difficult team to read given that their defense looked soft against Arkansas State, but made just enough plays to hold off a late drive from Mississippi State on the road. Clemson, meanwhile, hasn't been tested yet, but has given up a lot of points to North Texas and Presbyterian. The Hartwell Lake Tigers have a long and infamous history of disappointing or choking in big games. (Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.) With ESPN GameDay on hand, it's ripe for another example. However, being a near touchdown underdog is just the kind of game Clemson wins before losing a similar game as a favorite a week or two later.

Auburn's won 13 straight in this series, most recently a 23-20 win in the 2007 Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

The Pick: War Eagle and lay the points.

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Baylor +21.5 at TCU

Despite the Horned Frogs' success, they are somewhat vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks. Insert Baylor's Robert Griffin III, who had his freshman season cut short by a knee injury, but still amassed more than 2,000 passing yards and 800 rushing.

TCU will almost certainly win, but when Texas boys get together, it's difficult to win by more than three touchdowns. They're familiar with each other, and too tough to give in easily.

Key stats: Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Horned Frogs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big 12.

The Pick: The Bears and all those points.

Notre Dame +3.5 at Michigan State

Provided Dayne Crist can see out of both eyes this week, the Irish offense should be a little more crisp. Michigan State has out-gained Notre Dame the last four seasons, but that should end this week. The Irish have played vastly better teams to open the season, Connecticut and Michigan, versus Florida Atlantic and Western Michigan.

Two items that stand out: The Spartans had trouble closing out Florida Atlantic, and their secondary is vulnerable. Look for the Irish to win a relative shootout.

Key stat: The road team is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

The Pick: The Irish and take the points just in case.

Last week: 3-2 ATS

Overall: 7-3 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 3-0

Piggy bank: 2-2

Father-in-law: 2-1