Week 1 picks

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Kentucky (-3) at Louisville

In time, first-year coach Charlie Strong will get UofL back to the level of the pre-Kragthorpe days. It just won't happen this soon. Especially against a team with an established running game and not as much turnover on the coaching staff. For 10 straight years, the team that has had more rushing yards won the game. Make it 11 after Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke are finished with the Cards. Not only has UK won the last three over UofL, the Cats have also covered. Don't let the rivalry, or the opening of the newly expanded Papa John's Cardinal Stadium distract you from what should be an easy win for Big Blue.

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank:

Minnesota (-1.5) at Middle Tennessee State

Line has dropped from 3 since yesterday. This game will likely hinge on the QB switch for the Blue Raiders from Dwight Dasher to Logan Kilgore. (Dasher accepted a $1,500 loan, an NCAA violation). Dasher is a senior, Kilgore, a junior college transfer who hasn't started a D-1 game. Dasher led the team in rushing last season and passed for more than 2,700. The Gophers are 11-1 vs. current Sun Belt teams with an average margin of victory of 32 points. They've also won seven of the last eight road openers (credit: Phil Steele). The Gophers have a new defense and a commitment to run the ball, which they hope gets away from the deluge of sacks which was last season's theme. Take the Gophers, give the points, and pad your emergency fund.

UConn (+3) at Michigan

Rarely is a team as bad as advertised in the offseason. Put the Wolverines in that category this season. This is a classic case of going against public opinion. Big Blue still returns 15 starters and 53 lettermen. Most of those, especially the starters, were recruited for coach Rich Rodriguez' offensive scheme. The Huskies have won four straight road openers, so they're due to drop one.

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Boise State (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech (at FedEx Field)

This must be an odds-makers dream, with every other person picking the other team. You've got the argument of Virginia Tech's recent struggles to start season. That's combined with Boise State putting most of its stock of the entire season into this game. The Hokies, of course, lost to Alabama and East Carolina to start each of the last two seasons. Just like Va. Tech is primed for a big boost to start the season, Boise State, though, is due for a let down against the big boys. The Broncos have won four of their last five against BCS opponents including wins over Oregon the last two seasons. They've had all offseason to bask in the limelight and they simply won't be able to pull it through.

Southern Methodist (+13.5) at Texas Tech

If you missed June Jones' reclamation project at Hawaii, he's doing it again at SMU. The Mustangs went from 1-11 in 2008 to 8-5 last season, including a 45-10 win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl. That offense, coupled with the Red Raiders' suspect defense, and a new coaching staff under Tommy Tuberville, are reasons why this one will stay within two touchdowns. You can bank on the Mustangs' upperclassmen having a long memory to the '08 season when Texas Tech won 43-7.