Week 2 picks

Went 4-1 last week to start the season. Here's this week's installment.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Oregon -12 at Tennessee

Forget last week’s rehearsal against Tennessee-Martin, this is a lean season for the Big Orange. The Ducks, conversely, are one of the most talented teams in the country. A preseason interview I heard with Oregon coach Chip Kelly had more of a quiet confidence than tired clichés. There is some concern about Oregon traveling across country. Don’t be distracted by the Pac-10’s struggles historically in Knoxville. A week after beating New Mexico 72-0, the Ducks get star RB LaMichael James back following a suspension. As long as this stays under two touchdowns, the Ducks should cover.

Key stat: At least seven players on the Vols’ offense will make their first or second career start against the Ducks.

Pick: Oregon and give the points

NFL: Dolphins -3 at Bills

I know, I know, picking the NFL is easier blindfolded. And it’s more likely a monkey or walrus will have a better record, this is too good to pass up.

The Dolphins are a dark horse pick to win the AFC East, and are slowly turning into a contender under Tony Sparano. The Bills are starting an average quarterback with confidence issues, and a rookie running back. While the Bills averaged four yards per rush last season, it’s the front seven on defense that will let them down against the league’s best Wildcat offense. While C.J. Spiller might have some highlights, and the Bills will give a gritty effort, the Fish will ease to victory, and more importantly, cover.

Pick: Dolphins and give the points

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank:

Notre Dame -3.5 vs. Michigan

The public money is flowing big-time toward the Wolverines, (nearly 80 percent) and this is a classic case of going against the public. Don’t ‘chase the tails’ and let stats like these fool you:

· Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

· Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.

Along those lines, there have been five straight upsets in South Bend in this series, and six straight overall. Again, the Irish are due.

Last week’s win over UConn aside, Michigan’s defense wasn’t that good last year, and lost its best player (Brandon Graham) to the NFL.

Pick: Irish and give the points

Stanford -6 at UCLA

Unless it’s a huge mismatch (see Oregon-Tennessee) home dogs are tough to pass up in college. Toby Gerhart (134 yards, 3 TDs) was the main reason the Cardinal snapped a 5-game losing streak in the series last year. The Bruins have won six straight at home against Stanford by 12 points per game (another reason last year was a Gerhart abberation). Rick Neuheisel is 4-1 against Stanford. UCLA has won six of its last 10 home games against ranked opponents.

Pick: Bruins and take the points

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Alabama -12 vs. Penn State

A true freshman quarterback’s first road game before 100,000+ on a Saturday night at Bryant-Denny? That has turnover-mania written all over it, but that’s what the Nittany Lions are faced with. It would be easier for the Crimson Tide to cover this with Mark Ingram, but the defense will make up for it against PSU’s Robert Bolden. With Bobby Bowden on hand as a guest of Alabama, and it being Bear Bryant’s birthday, that’s a lot to overcome for the blue and white. Lions are 3-9 since 2001 against teams ranked in the top 10, but are 10 of 12 away from home vs. BCS teams (credit: Phil Steele). The main hesitation here is Bama’s offense against a solid Penn State defense that only allowed 20 or more points in three games last season. Not to mention, Penn State is 8-1 on the road the last two seasons.

Pick: Crimson Tide and give the points

Last week: 4-1 (4-1 ATS)

Overall: 4-1 (4-1 ATS)

Breakdown:

401(k): 1-0

Piggy bank: 2-0

Father-in-law: 1-1