After I previewed and predicted the SEC last week, here are the rest of the power conferences and my prediction for the national championship in Glendale, Ariz.
ACC
Virginia Tech over Florida State
The Hokies have been the ACC's most consistent team for several years (possibly since the glory days of Florida State's run in the 1990s), and have finished in the top 12 nationally in scoring and total defense each of the last six seasons. Coach Frank Beamer has a loaded offensive backfield, but lost six starters on defense. He did keep coordinator Bud Foster, who got a raise after flirting with Georgia and other openings.
Florida State opens the Jimbo Fisher era with a new defensive coordinator (Mark Stoops) and one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Christian Ponder. The Noles are fortunate to play in a weak division in which the second best team, Clemson, returns a top QB in Kyle Parker, but will dearly miss offensive playmakers C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford.
Virginia Tech is simply a more stable program, and honestly, in the ACC, that's all you need.
Big East
Pitt over UConn
Like him or not, Dave Wannestadt has Pitt on the right track and should wrap up a conference championship. The Panthers have three of the best players in the league in RB Dion Lewis, WR Jonathan Baldwin and DE Greg Romeus.
Even though the Huskies were 8-5 last year, they lost every game by four points or less, and embarrassed South Carolina in the Papajohns.com Bowl. RB Jordan Trodman should be better than last year's 1,188-yard rushing season. The 16 starters is a big reason why they'll contend, and possibly win the conference title. What's more, the Huskies get West Virginia, Pitt and Cincinnati at home. But Pitt's talent will overcome UConn's experience.
Big Ten
Ohio State over Iowa
Largely based on Terrelle Pryor's performance in the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes are a popular pick to not only win the league, but play for the national championship. This season could be a replay of last year's overtime win against Iowa at home. The Hawkeyes should be OSU's toughest competition in the conference, and this time, they travel to Iowa City. Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn and S Tyler Sash will be charged with slowing Pryor and Co.
The Hawkeyes have a legitimate chance to unseat the Buckeyes if only by their sheer number of home games against the conference's elite. Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State, along with the Buckeyes, will play among the black and gold.
Big 12
Oklahoma over Nebraska
The last time NeBraska was ranked in the preseason top 10 was 2002. In only the second season for coach Bo Pelini, the Cornhuskers have gained a lot of fans this offseason, as not many have forgotten how their barely lost last year's Big 12 Championship game on a controversial call.
Fortunately for the Huskers, Texas is the only top 10 team on their schedule, unless Missouri gets hot.
The Big 12 South will be decided by two quarterbacks (Landry Jones and Garrett Gilbert) who were called into duty last year following injuries to Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. In DeMarco Murray, the Sooners have a top flight running back, and another solid defensive unit. The big question is the offensive line. A matchup against Nebraska could expose that weak link.
Pac 10
Oregon over Oregon State
For the second straight season, the Civil War should decide the Pac-10. The Ducks should be favored by a touchdown in every game but Oregon State, Cal and USC. It wouldn't be a shock if the Ducks finished with a one-loss season. Despite the loss of QB Jeremiah Masoli to Ole Miss, senior Nate Costa has garnered some accolades in the preseason and is expected to win the job over sophomore Darron Thomas.
LaMichael James, an RB who took over for LaGarrette Blount last season, is an undersized by speedy back who will be a focal point of the offense. Last year, he had six games of more than 150 rushing yards.
The Beavers return 14 starters, including an all-namer, Jacquizz Rodgers, an RB who burst on the scene two years ago in an upset of USC. Rodgers and his brother, James are a tough combination for defenses. James Rodgers led the Pac-10 in all-purpose yards per game (179.1) last season. The trouble for Rodgers is OSU's passing game won't scare many opponents. Much like the offense, the defense is built on DT Stephen Paea, and not much else.
Oregon, which was the first team other than USC to win the conference since 2001, should have plenty of confidence. And more depth than its arch-rival, which will be the difference.
National Championship
Because of the BCS formula, choosing a national championship matchup is largely based on where a team starts the season in the polls. And because a loss means a team will have to rely on help from others, it's easy to narrow the prediction to teams that should lose one game or less.
Taking that into account, it's difficult to list any team outside of the top 10 as a national championship contender.
Coaches poll:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Boise State
6. Virginia Tech
7. TCU
8. Oklahoma
9. Nebraska
10. Iowa
The BCS Standings are a combination of the coaches' poll, the Harris Interactive poll, which consists of former players, coaches, administrators, and current and former media, and six computer rankings (Peter Wolfe, Wes Colley, Sagarin
Seattle Times, Richard Billingsley, Kenneth Massey).
Off the bat, it's difficult to put two SEC teams in the final game. Similar to last year, Alabama and Florida are expected to play for the SEC Championship, and therefore, both shouldn't advance to the Big Game. Because of the Crimson Tide's schedule, which is loaded with opponents coming off of bye weeks, and improvement from teams like Arkansas and South Carolina. Take out Florida because of the inexperience at quarterback, and the youth on defense.
Alabama and Florida will each have at least one loss after the SEC Championship, and it wouldn't be a shock for each to have two.
Boise State's season starts and ends on Labor Day against Virginia Tech. Win, and the Broncos can coast to the Fiesta Bowl provided they aren't punished by a weak schedule. Boise State won't make the Fiesta Bowl for one of two reasons: It'll lose to Virginia Tech, or its schedule will keep it out of the top two slots.
That leaves us with Oklahoma and Ohio State.
Each team must largely survive one conference game (Texas, Iowa) to preserve hopes of a trip to Glendale, Ariz.
When the lights go down in Glendale, it'll be Terrelle Pryor and the Buckeyes who prevail with a win what was taken from them at the end of the 2002 season.
Showing posts with label ACC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ACC. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Monday, August 16, 2010
5 key college football storylines
Each summer, there are a handful of storylines that dominant the conversation as media days give way to practice, and Labor Day signals the start of this country's most anticipated season. Here are the main stories that have buzzed over the summer, and will make newspaper and magazine headlines as previews hit newsstands soon.
Will Boise State take advantage of starting the season in the top 5?
The Broncos have carried the flag for the small schools since before their shocking upset of Oklahoma at the end of the 2006 season. Their annual undefeated starts were always the first arguments for those looking to eliminate the BCS system. This time, they start against Virginia Tech at FedEx Field in Washington in what is one of the most anticipated games of the season. It only helps that the game starts the season in the traditional Labor Day evening slot.
While the Hokies have a top notch backfield, featuring the versatile QB Tyrod Taylor and Heisman hopeful Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech is always known for its special teams. It's ironic because Boise State has also made a name off of special teams with the Statue of Liberty play against the Sooners, and the fake punt to beat TCU last season.
It'll be interesting to see how Boise State handles an entire offseason of distractions instead of slowly building its case throughout the season. This is the second time since the Broncos hit the national scene that they start with a high caliber opponent. (Last year they opened against Oregon.) And college football is the least forgiving sport for early season losses. Win, and the hype will reach unprecedented levels. Lose, and the Broncos are again put on the small-school back burner.
How will the coaching carousel spin?
Speaking of Boise State, its coach, Chris Peterson, will no doubt be among the names tossed around for the big-time openings later this season, probably even if the Broncos lose more than a game. You have to wonder, though, if Peterson will think of his former boss, and former Boise State head coach, Dan Hawkins, who is hanging by a thread at Colorado. Many were surprised when he survived at the end of last season. Hawkins' innermost thoughts have to at least give a passing thought to what would have happened if he stayed at Boise. (After all, this is the Big 12, it ain't intramurals, brother.)
The most high profile coaches expected to move are Michigan's Rich Rodriguez and LSU's Les Miles, who might return to his alma mater in Ann Arbor. Although depending on LSU's season, the Wolverines might not see Miles as an appealing choice. Given his recent run at Stanford, many expect Jim Harbaugh to take over the program he used to quarterback. Because of the rules investigations at West Virginia and Michigan, Rodriguez is building an unfortunate reputation that could be difficult to reverse. While Miles is increasingly unpopular among Tiger fans, his huge buyout ($15 million) has to be a hurdle to changing coaches.
Back in the Big Ten, Illinois coach Ron Zook is running out of time to see the dividends of his recruiting successes from two and three years ago. And given the expectation of Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State above the Illini, Zook should probably find a realtor soon.
Those expected to get interviews for these impending openings have to be UConn coach Randy Edsell, Will Muschamp, Texas' defensive coordinator and head coach in waiting, and Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.
Will Notre Dame return to the upper echelon?
Not until 2011 or 2012. The hiring of Brian Kelly is universally popular, mainly because he's won everywhere from Grand Valley State to Cincinnati. His challenge is to get the Irish back to the top of the rankings and not a second fiddle game on NBC, which sits behind ESPN and CBS in top flight college football games.
It won't happen this year because of the soft schedule, which features the likes of Western Michigan, Tulsa and Army. No matter if ND starts 6-0, with four of those at home, like it did two coaches ago, only to unravel quickly, it won't get the credit of an SEC or Big 12 school because it won't have a quality win, and maybe not even a ranked win.
Under Charlie Weis, the Irish didn't have much trouble landing 5-star recruits, or putting up points. It just couldn't hold leads or shut down opponents. ND again appears to have a quality group of wide receivers and Kelly's forte is offense. The Irish have to put it all together against multiple ranked teams, which it hasn't done in nearly 10 years. Since Bob Davie was the coach, the Irish have struggled to beat teams that remain in the rankings by the end of the season. Since '97, the Irish have only beaten nine teams that were ranked when the game was played and at the end of the season.
Will the agent fiasco have an impact?
Despite the hot air bravado from Nick Saban and Urban Meyer about agents causing problems on campuses with cash and gifts, it's doubtful that anything major will come out several weeks after the story first made headlines. Even when findings and penalties are handed down, it's doubtful a key player will be suspended for a lengthy period of the season.
The schools most often mentioned in relation to the agent investigation are North Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.
The trouble spots remain in the Carolinas. In Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels are still waiting to hear if DT Marvin Austin or WR Greg Little will be penalized before their opener against LSU.
In Columbia, Weslye Saunders, an above average tight end, only appears to be in a worse situation as each week passes as reports surface about a local hotel housing Gamecock football players. Saunders also is being investigated about whether he engaged in dealings with an agent.
This is a story that will linger because of the overlapping and year round schedule of college football, the NFL and the NFL Draft. But it shouldn't cause more than a ripple, especially if the NFL imposes harsher rules against the "rogue agents."
How will the sanctions affect USC and the Pac-10?
The key is the recruiting pitch. With 10 fewer scholarships per season for three years, how will Lane Kiffin and his staff sell the program to continue to land top-shelf recruits. Without a bowl bid, like a BCS appearance, to dangle.
It not only cuts into the depth to cover annual problems like transfers, injuries and academic inedibility. But it also opens 10 players who could land at another Pac-10 school in a conference where several programs are on the rise behind up-and-coming coaches.
Kiffin has preached that he's cutting back on practices to preserve the Trojans' limited depth.
But what fans wonder most is how Kiffin, who hasn't had a head coaching job for more than two years at each stop, can hold a program together and return it to the top of the polls. Given his dumpster fires exits at Oakland and Tennessee, not many give him a chance.
The biggest question is how the new athletics director, Pat Haden, views Kiffin's job performance. A better question might be about the strength of the Pac-10, and if Washington and UCLA can join Oregon in challenging the Trojans' conference dominance. They're on the clock for three years to let us know.
Will Boise State take advantage of starting the season in the top 5?
The Broncos have carried the flag for the small schools since before their shocking upset of Oklahoma at the end of the 2006 season. Their annual undefeated starts were always the first arguments for those looking to eliminate the BCS system. This time, they start against Virginia Tech at FedEx Field in Washington in what is one of the most anticipated games of the season. It only helps that the game starts the season in the traditional Labor Day evening slot.
While the Hokies have a top notch backfield, featuring the versatile QB Tyrod Taylor and Heisman hopeful Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech is always known for its special teams. It's ironic because Boise State has also made a name off of special teams with the Statue of Liberty play against the Sooners, and the fake punt to beat TCU last season.
It'll be interesting to see how Boise State handles an entire offseason of distractions instead of slowly building its case throughout the season. This is the second time since the Broncos hit the national scene that they start with a high caliber opponent. (Last year they opened against Oregon.) And college football is the least forgiving sport for early season losses. Win, and the hype will reach unprecedented levels. Lose, and the Broncos are again put on the small-school back burner.
How will the coaching carousel spin?
Speaking of Boise State, its coach, Chris Peterson, will no doubt be among the names tossed around for the big-time openings later this season, probably even if the Broncos lose more than a game. You have to wonder, though, if Peterson will think of his former boss, and former Boise State head coach, Dan Hawkins, who is hanging by a thread at Colorado. Many were surprised when he survived at the end of last season. Hawkins' innermost thoughts have to at least give a passing thought to what would have happened if he stayed at Boise. (After all, this is the Big 12, it ain't intramurals, brother.)
The most high profile coaches expected to move are Michigan's Rich Rodriguez and LSU's Les Miles, who might return to his alma mater in Ann Arbor. Although depending on LSU's season, the Wolverines might not see Miles as an appealing choice. Given his recent run at Stanford, many expect Jim Harbaugh to take over the program he used to quarterback. Because of the rules investigations at West Virginia and Michigan, Rodriguez is building an unfortunate reputation that could be difficult to reverse. While Miles is increasingly unpopular among Tiger fans, his huge buyout ($15 million) has to be a hurdle to changing coaches.
Back in the Big Ten, Illinois coach Ron Zook is running out of time to see the dividends of his recruiting successes from two and three years ago. And given the expectation of Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State above the Illini, Zook should probably find a realtor soon.
Those expected to get interviews for these impending openings have to be UConn coach Randy Edsell, Will Muschamp, Texas' defensive coordinator and head coach in waiting, and Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.
Will Notre Dame return to the upper echelon?
Not until 2011 or 2012. The hiring of Brian Kelly is universally popular, mainly because he's won everywhere from Grand Valley State to Cincinnati. His challenge is to get the Irish back to the top of the rankings and not a second fiddle game on NBC, which sits behind ESPN and CBS in top flight college football games.
It won't happen this year because of the soft schedule, which features the likes of Western Michigan, Tulsa and Army. No matter if ND starts 6-0, with four of those at home, like it did two coaches ago, only to unravel quickly, it won't get the credit of an SEC or Big 12 school because it won't have a quality win, and maybe not even a ranked win.
Under Charlie Weis, the Irish didn't have much trouble landing 5-star recruits, or putting up points. It just couldn't hold leads or shut down opponents. ND again appears to have a quality group of wide receivers and Kelly's forte is offense. The Irish have to put it all together against multiple ranked teams, which it hasn't done in nearly 10 years. Since Bob Davie was the coach, the Irish have struggled to beat teams that remain in the rankings by the end of the season. Since '97, the Irish have only beaten nine teams that were ranked when the game was played and at the end of the season.
Will the agent fiasco have an impact?
Despite the hot air bravado from Nick Saban and Urban Meyer about agents causing problems on campuses with cash and gifts, it's doubtful that anything major will come out several weeks after the story first made headlines. Even when findings and penalties are handed down, it's doubtful a key player will be suspended for a lengthy period of the season.
The schools most often mentioned in relation to the agent investigation are North Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.
The trouble spots remain in the Carolinas. In Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels are still waiting to hear if DT Marvin Austin or WR Greg Little will be penalized before their opener against LSU.
In Columbia, Weslye Saunders, an above average tight end, only appears to be in a worse situation as each week passes as reports surface about a local hotel housing Gamecock football players. Saunders also is being investigated about whether he engaged in dealings with an agent.
This is a story that will linger because of the overlapping and year round schedule of college football, the NFL and the NFL Draft. But it shouldn't cause more than a ripple, especially if the NFL imposes harsher rules against the "rogue agents."
How will the sanctions affect USC and the Pac-10?
The key is the recruiting pitch. With 10 fewer scholarships per season for three years, how will Lane Kiffin and his staff sell the program to continue to land top-shelf recruits. Without a bowl bid, like a BCS appearance, to dangle.
It not only cuts into the depth to cover annual problems like transfers, injuries and academic inedibility. But it also opens 10 players who could land at another Pac-10 school in a conference where several programs are on the rise behind up-and-coming coaches.
Kiffin has preached that he's cutting back on practices to preserve the Trojans' limited depth.
But what fans wonder most is how Kiffin, who hasn't had a head coaching job for more than two years at each stop, can hold a program together and return it to the top of the polls. Given his dumpster fires exits at Oakland and Tennessee, not many give him a chance.
The biggest question is how the new athletics director, Pat Haden, views Kiffin's job performance. A better question might be about the strength of the Pac-10, and if Washington and UCLA can join Oregon in challenging the Trojans' conference dominance. They're on the clock for three years to let us know.
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