Week 4 picks

Had my worst week of the season last week, including my first 401 (k) loss as Utah State let me down at home. But Arkansas and Notre Dame took the points on the road and covered nicely. Still, I've hit 9-of-15 on the season.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

South Carolina +3 at Auburn

Auburn is still recovering from one of the most physical games of the season against Clemson last week. Auburn has squeaked out to victories over Mississippi State and Clemson, but it's also been exposed. QB Cam Newton might be a great athlete, but he's either going to be forced to throw too much, or get banged too hard, to be effective the entire game.

While not many have confidence in Gamecocks' QB Stephen Garcia, and RB Marcus Lattimore might one day hit a freshman wall, the USC defense is good enough to keep them in the game, even on the road.

Key stats: Gamecocks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.

The Pick: South Carolina and the points

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank

Georgia (pick) at Mississippi State

For all the tradition at Georgia, a game in Starkville shouldn't be a measuring stick for Mark Richt and the Dawgs. But it is, and that's why the points are just insurance for what should be an outright win. Add in MSU's QB problems, and all Georgia really needs to do is stop the run. Buzzards are starting to circle around Richt, so bet on his players using that as a rallying cry.

This line has moved wildly, from MSU being favored by two, and back to a pick-em.

Key stats: MSU's QB's have thrown seven interceptions and zero touchdowns in the last two games, losses to Auburn and LSU.

The Pick: Georgia

Alabama -7.5 at Arkansas

This buildup to this game is bordering on a championship preview. Ryan Mallett vs. the Crimson Tide defense. Alabama's two-headed rushing attack vs. an improved Hogs defense. And oh by the way, Greg McElroy outplayed Mallett last year. The first true road atmosphere for Alabama. Will Bobby Petrino prevent his team from being beaten before the game starts, which is what he said happened last year?

It's easy to read too much into this game, and over think the pick, but Alabama's championship machine keeps rolling.

The Pick: Alabama and lay the points.

Ole Miss -3 vs. Fresno State

Barring a theory often used in the NFL, the Bulldogs have a tough trip across the country to Oxford, their second straight road game. And no matter the struggles of Ole Miss, it's very difficult to go on the road in the SEC and win. Not to mention when that same team lost the previous week. How many SEC teams lose back-to-back games at home, much less start 0-3?

Also in the time to balance-it-out department, Fresno's covered in both games this season, easily.

Key stat: Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

The Pick: Ole Miss and lay the points.

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Temple +14 at Penn State

Temple coach Al Golden and four other members of his coaching staff are former players at Penn State under Joe Paterno. So I don't see Paterno running up the score on former players. Coming off a win over UConn, Temple should be brimming with confidence against a Penn State team that could be one of the more overrated top 20 teams.

Key stats: Temple is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in its last six September games, and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. Penn State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight September games.

The Pick: Temple and grab the points.

Last week: 2-3 ATS

Overall: 9-6 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 3-1

Piggy bank: 3-3

Father-in-law: 3-2