Willian vs. Farner vol. 4

Willian vs. Farner

Since Brent went 3-3 last week, while I was 2-4, I'm working with a two-game lead, 10-8 versus 8-10. He's again falling in love with the chalk this week, taking three road favorites. He's admittedly reluctant about the Hawkeyes, but I'm equally worried about the Trojans. Here we go.

Florida State (-4) at NC State:

Brent: NC State had been one of the surprise teams this year until a bad 33-27 loss last week to East Carolina. The magic may be starting to wear off, as they’ve had trouble on the defensive side of the ball the last few weeks. The ‘Noles, meanwhile, have really picked it up since a blowout loss to Oklahoma in early September, responding with 5 straight wins, including a 28-point beat-down at Miami. I like Florida State to cover on the road. FSU 30, NC State 21

Keith: While Florida State has somewhat established itself as a favorite to get to the ACC Championship game, I'm not yet sold on this conference having one team above the rest. The underdog is undefeated ATS in the last nine games in this series. The Wolfpack are strong at home, despite the Virginia Tech loss, which shouldn't have happened. The Wolfpack are strong in every major offensive category, and look for them to benefit from the mid-week home game. N.C. State 28, FSU 24

Louisville (+9) at Pitt

Brent: UofL’s defense responded with another shutout last week against UConn, holding Jordan Todman to just 80 yards on 19 carries in the process. UofL will need another big defensive performance against Dion Lewis and a steadily-improving Pitt offense. I don’t know if UofL has enough to go into Pitt and steal a road victory, but I do think they will stay under the spread. Pitt 31, Louisville 24

Keith: The Cardinals are still trying to gain traction under Charlie Strong, and while they've played well against sub-par teams like UConn and Cincinnati, it's tough to stay close with an experienced Pitt team on the road. Take out the Miami game, and the Panthers have had a solid season. Throw in a few confidence-boosting wins against Rutgers, Syracuse and Notre Dame, and we're seeing the team many picked to win the Big East. UofL might win this game in a couple years, but it won't be close this time. Pitt 31, Louisville 14

Iowa (-6.5) vs Michigan State

Brent: One has to believe that barring something crazy, Iowa is the only hurdle remaining between Michigan State and an undefeated season, as Minnesota, Purdue, and a disappointing Penn State remain on the schedule. However, Iowa needs to bounce back after a close loss to Wisconsin last week in order to stay in the Big 10 title hunt. The home crowd is the difference in this one as an Iowa victory turns the Big 10 into a big mess. Iowa 28, Michigan State 20

Keith: The Spartans are undefeated as an underdog this season (Wisconsin and Michigan) and have a bit more at stake in the Big 11 standings than the Hawkeyes. Michigan State knows if it wins this game, it can coast over Minnesota, Purdue and Penn State. Iowa would need one of those teams to knock off the Spartans, and concern itself with Ohio State. Look for MSU to learn from last week's slow start against Northwestern, and put on a strong showing. This is my double shot pick of the week. Iowa 28, MSU 24

Auburn (-7) at Ole Miss

Brent: The big question is, can Auburn keep this up? They are #1 in the BCS standings for the first time in school history, and Cam Newton is playing like a man among boys. Neither Auburn nor Ole Miss has shown the ability to consistently stop an opponent from scoring, so I look for a shootout in this one. Newton leads Auburn to another victory. Auburn 41, Ole Miss 31

Keith: Well, let's cue the weekly broken record: Auburn can't possibly continue this another week. Houston Nutt loves to be the underdog, and Jeremiah Masoli should put up big numbers if he can stay away from Nick Fairley. Even if Auburn wins, it hasn't done a good job of putting teams away. Five of its wins are by a touchdown or less. Ole Miss 28, Auburn 27

Oregon (-7) at USC

Brent: I am going to continue to pick Oregon until someone shows that they can even come close to containing the Ducks’ offense. Oregon has averaged over 49 points in Pac-10 games, and is winning by an average of almost 25 points per game. Those are scary numbers for a USC defense that is ranked 85^th nationally (107^th in pass defense). USC was impressive against Cal in its last game, but I can’t see them staying within a TD this week. This is my double-shot pick of the week. Oregon 44, USC 28

Keith: This has been a season as seemingly untouchable teams have fallen off three straight weeks. While USC hasn't shown much, especially against a high-powered offense like Oregon. But this kind of season, don't be surprised if the Ducks stumble. Oregon 35, USC 30.