Week 6 picks

Last week, for the third straight week, I went 2-3, which means I'm primed for a hot streak. Plus, I'm 2-0 on the NFL this season.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Oregon State +8 at Arizona

As I said in the Willian vs. Farner vol. 1 post, the Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Arizona, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in the series. In Arizona’s home games against BCS Conference teams (Iowa and Cal) they’ve won by a combined eight points. The Cats will win, but it’ll be close.

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank:

Kentucky +6 vs. Auburn

This began the week at 7.5, so you can see how many pounced on the Cats. I always like to go the other way when two teams are headed in opposite directions like these. Auburn seems like it’ll win every close game. Kentucky hasn’t done much right the last two weeks against Florida and Ole Miss. That's why you go opposite those trends if it looks too easy. Some wise guys say to fade the team that ESPN shows the most highlights of in a close matchup like this. In this case, it’s Auburn and Cam Newton, who has snuck on to some Heisman watch lists. Sure Auburn is undefeated, but its three toughest wins could have easily been losses. All of them. Kentucky’s good enough to avoid a three-game losing streak, especially at home.

Utah -6 at Iowa State

Utah hasn’t faced a strong opponent since opening against Pittsburgh, but has coasted over lesser teams like New Mexico and San Jose State.

It’s been under the radar behind Boise State and TCU in the non-automatic qualifier category this season. But the Utes have a strong defense, No. 7 in the country, and look hardly the team that had to replace seven starters on defense, including all three starting linebackers. Utah hasn’t surrendered a single touchdown in its last five quarters of action.

While Iowa State’s passing looked good last week against Texas Tech, look for the Cyclones to return to their season-long trend this week.

The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. MWC.

Key stat: Utah is 5-0 under Kyle Whittingham when coming off a bye week.

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Texas A&M +5.5 vs. Arkansas

Played at a neutral site, the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, it’s easy to take a knee-jerk reaction and go with the Hogs and lay the points. But the Aggies are averaging nearly 40 points per game, and only loss was 38-35 at Oklahoma State. Look for Arkansas to come out slow following the Alabama loss and a week off. This could be a revealing game that the supposed second-best team in the SEC could be in for a tight one.

Bengals -6.5 vs. Bucs

The Bengals struggled last week against the Browns, despite a big day from Terrell Owens. The Bucs are coming off a bye, and are mostly unproven, with wins over Cleveland and Carolina, and a blowout loss to Pittsburgh. It’s easy to read too much into one game, or think it carries over. The Bengals will do everything they can do avoid losing two straight going into a bye week.

Last week: 2-3 ATS

Overall: 13-11 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 3-3

Piggy bank: 5-6

Father-in-law: 5-3