Thursday, September 30, 2010

Week 5 picks

Looking over the picks this season, looks like your safest plays have been to grab your father-law's-cash. Even in these tough economic times, your 401 (k) doesn't appear safe in the Almanac, either.

I'm allergic to the chalk this week, trying to rebound from back-to-back 2-3 showings the last two weeks. Conference and division play is featured on the slate, but the theme is home dogs. It's too tempting to go against this many of them.

Empty your 401 (k) here:
N.C. State +3.5 vs. Virginia Tech
This line dropped from 4 early in the week. One of the cardinal rules of picking against the spread is take a team that is an underdog at home following an outright win as a road underdog. That's precisely the situation the Wolfpack are in this week. Last week, they trounced Georgia Tech in Atlanta, 45-28, as 8-point dogs. Confidence should be sky high in Raleigh. Not to mention a 4-0 team getting points is tough to pass up.

Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. Hokies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 3.5-10. Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in October.

The Pick: N.C. State and grab the points

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank
Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This moved from 3 early in the week. The Browns had a nice showing last week against Baltimore, most notably the 144 yards last week with a TD and 6.5 yards per carry by Peyton Hillis. The Bengals, conversely, won, but struggled at Carolina, one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Browns, while 0-3, have put up a fight in every game, losing by a combined 12 points. I wouldn't be surprised if they win this one outright.

Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games, 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games. Cincinnati is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games.

The Pick: Take the Browns and the points

Florida +8 at Alabama
This has come down from 9.5 early in the week. The Gators are 3-0 as underdogs under Urban Meyer, and haven't received points since the LSU game in 2007. What's more, they're getting more than a touchdown. Florida is the last SEC team to beat Alabama, in the 2008 SEC Championship game.

Since that loss, in 19 games, Alabama has outscored opponents 152-38 in the fourth quarter.

But the combination of Alabama's young secondary, which was exposed against Arkansas, and the ankle injury of DT Marcel Dareus have me thinking a late cover is possible. Alabama will likely win, but it'll be tough to beat the Gators by 10 points.

The Pick: Take the Gators and the points

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:
Penn State +7 at Iowa
While Penn State is 3-1, its wins are against Youngstown State, Kent State and Temple, and of course got beat by Alabama. The Nittany Lions are 1-3 against the number, and it's tough to pick a freshman QB to keep it close in his first Big Ten road game.

Iowa, meanwhile, lost its national championship hopes with a loss at Arizona. It's rolled otherwise over Eastern Illinois, Iowa State and Ball State. Iowa has a strong defense, and Penn State's offense has struggled, but look for a late cover as Iowa will relax with its first conference win in hand.

The underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings The Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games.

The Pick: Take the Nittany Lions and the points

Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Texas
Neither team has been great against the number this season. The Sooners have struggled to put back-to-back solid performances together. Texas, meanwhile, is trying to recover from last week's blowout loss to UCLA at home. The keys are Texas struggles to run the ball and stop the run. The Longhorns' rushing offense is 76th in the nation.

Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Sooners are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games.

The Pick: Boomer Sooner and the points

Last week: 2-3 ATS

Overall: 11-9 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 3-2

Piggy bank: 4-5

Father-in-law: 4-2

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Handicapping the Heisman v. 1.0

The college football season is a month old, and many of the Heisman contenders we expected in the preseason have performed mostly how we expected.

But rarely is a Heisman winner established in September. Doug Flutie of Boston College may be the only one. Flutie had six touchdowns in the opening month in 1984. Last year, not many even listed Mark Ingram as a possibility at this point in the season. It wasn't until the South Carolina game in mid-October that Ingram made his run.

This year, Ingram is again very much in contention along with a host of quarterbacks.

Here are the top contenders:

Mark Ingram, Alabama RB. Despite knee surgery, Ingram looks as powerful as last season when he wore down opponents en route to a national championship and Heisman Trophy. While history suggests it's nearly impossible to win back-to-back Heismans, Ingram has shown against Duke and Arkansas that barring a Bama loss, it'll be tough to knock him from the podium. Take the win at Arkansas. Ingram had 157 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown in the first quarter and a late score, to help Alabama to a 24-20 victory. Odds to win: 4:1


Denard "Shoelace" Robinson, Michigan QB. Robinson wasn't on anybody's preseason list of contenders. But his play out of the blocks, particularly against UConn and Notre Dame, put him in the Michigan record books and breathed hope back into a program. Without Robinson, the only talk about Michigan would be how soon Rich Rodriguez will be fired. Odds to win: 5:1


Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State QB. The lanky long-strider for the Buckeyes is extending the kind of play he started in last season's Rose Bowl. The only trouble is OSU has only played one quality team - Miami - and Pryor might not be able to bolster his numbers against Big Ten opponents until the Bucks play Wisconsin or Iowa. But he has more than 1,200 offensive yards and 13 touchdowns. Odds to win: 5:1

Andrew Luck, Stanford QB. Luck's stock has risen alongside the Cardinal's undefeated start, not the least of which includes ESPN NFL Draft expect Mel Kiper, Jr. promoting him to the top spot on his "Big Board" of prospects. Odds to win: 7:1

Kellen Moore, Boise State QB. Moore's individual hopes are likely to be parallel with the Broncos' pursuit of a national championship. The same argument that's made about Boise's supposed hollow chance at playing for the BCS championship could be saddled to Moore. He isn't doing it against top-shelf opponents. Odds to win: 9:1

LaMichael James, Oregon RB. The speedy Duck tailback's hopes of a trip to NYC likely hinge on his team's record, presumably if the Ducks can stay undefeated. He's averaging 8.19 yards per carry and is second in the nation with 158.3 rushing yards per game. Odds to win: 12:1

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas QB. With a win over Alabama last week, the 6-foot-6, strong-armed Mallett would have been a favorite to win the trophy. But two late interceptions virtually erased his name from the conversation. If the Hogs win out and Bama loses, Mallett might sneak an invitation to New York (a.k.a making the top four), but he won't be a serious contender. Odds to win: 15:1


Funniest videos of September

Each week there seems to be a new blooper-worthy video. In the last two weeks there have been two that would stack up among a decade's best of outtakes. Anytime a fan runs onto the field, there's a chance for crazy antics. That was just the case in Philly last week when Braves left fielder Matt Diaz tripped a guy dress in a red spandex suit in order for the knucklehead to be taken away by security.

On Sunday, the referee in the Cowboys-Texans game blundered a penalty call following a kickoff. The multiple penalties that made him stop and start only made it better. For guys that are all but robotic giving a penalty call, it's hilarious to see one botched this bad. Enjoy.


Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Week 4 picks

Had my worst week of the season last week, including my first 401 (k) loss as Utah State let me down at home. But Arkansas and Notre Dame took the points on the road and covered nicely. Still, I've hit 9-of-15 on the season.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

South Carolina +3 at Auburn
Auburn is still recovering from one of the most physical games of the season against Clemson last week. Auburn has squeaked out to victories over Mississippi State and Clemson, but it's also been exposed. QB Cam Newton might be a great athlete, but he's either going to be forced to throw too much, or get banged too hard, to be effective the entire game.

While not many have confidence in Gamecocks' QB Stephen Garcia, and RB Marcus Lattimore might one day hit a freshman wall, the USC defense is good enough to keep them in the game, even on the road.

Key stats: Gamecocks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.

The Pick: South Carolina and the points

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank
Georgia (pick) at Mississippi State
For all the tradition at Georgia, a game in Starkville shouldn't be a measuring stick for Mark Richt and the Dawgs. But it is, and that's why the points are just insurance for what should be an outright win. Add in MSU's QB problems, and all Georgia really needs to do is stop the run. Buzzards are starting to circle around Richt, so bet on his players using that as a rallying cry.

This line has moved wildly, from MSU being favored by two, and back to a pick-em.

Key stats: MSU's QB's have thrown seven interceptions and zero touchdowns in the last two games, losses to Auburn and LSU.

The Pick: Georgia

Alabama -7.5 at Arkansas
This buildup to this game is bordering on a championship preview. Ryan Mallett vs. the Crimson Tide defense. Alabama's two-headed rushing attack vs. an improved Hogs defense. And oh by the way, Greg McElroy outplayed Mallett last year. The first true road atmosphere for Alabama. Will Bobby Petrino prevent his team from being beaten before the game starts, which is what he said happened last year?

It's easy to read too much into this game, and over think the pick, but Alabama's championship machine keeps rolling.

The Pick: Alabama and lay the points.

Ole Miss -3 vs. Fresno State
Barring a theory often used in the NFL, the Bulldogs have a tough trip across the country to Oxford, their second straight road game. And no matter the struggles of Ole Miss, it's very difficult to go on the road in the SEC and win. Not to mention when that same team lost the previous week. How many SEC teams lose back-to-back games at home, much less start 0-3?

Also in the time to balance-it-out department, Fresno's covered in both games this season, easily.

Key stat: Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

The Pick: Ole Miss and lay the points.

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:
Temple +14 at Penn State
Temple coach Al Golden and four other members of his coaching staff are former players at Penn State under Joe Paterno. So I don't see Paterno running up the score on former players. Coming off a win over UConn, Temple should be brimming with confidence against a Penn State team that could be one of the more overrated top 20 teams.

Key stats: Temple is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in its last six September games, and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. Penn State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight September games.

The Pick: Temple and grab the points.

Last week: 2-3 ATS

Overall: 9-6 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 3-1

Piggy bank: 3-3

Father-in-law: 3-2

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Greatest catch of the season?

Clemson running back Jamie Harper made possibly the greatest catch of the season early in an eventual loss at Auburn on Saturday. Watching live, I initially thought it would be ruled incomplete because he appeared to trap it when falling to the ground. But the play was upheld, and was especially remarkable given Harper's 230-pound frame. Check it out.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Dawgs are at a crossroads

The talk of the hot seat that Mark Richt wasn't on this summer has re-appeared awful early this season.

Saturday's loss to Arkansas made Georgia 0-2 in the SEC for the first time since 1993 when Ray Goff was at the helm. What's worse for Dawg Nation is Georgia has lost four of its last five games at home against top 25 teams.

2010 - Arkansas
2009 - LSU
2008 - Alabama, Georgia Tech (beat Vanderbilt)

Two of the glaring stats from the Arkansas loss were supposed to be the keys to this season: an experienced offensive line and an improved pass rush. But Georgia surrendered six sacks and only had one.

What we take away from this loss is Georgia isn't a team that will give its fans reason to have confidence. Opponents won't be intimidated to come in between the hedges. The experienced offensive line is a question mark again. Cordy Glenn struggled at tackle and oft-injured Trinton Sturdivant appeared hobbled again.

Georgia can't even find solace in looking around its own division. Although Florida struggled to start the season, it closed out Tennessee awfully well. Vanderbilt handled what's now a sub-par Ole Miss team. And of course South Carolina looks to be primed for at least second in the division. The one unknown is Kentucky, and that game's on the road.

So you want to get rid of Richt? That hot seat can't be dismissed anymore, right? (Has he replaced Les Miles as the SEC coach most likely to be fired?) But who do you bring in? Georgia grads Will Muschamp (Texas) or Kirby Smart (Alabama), two of the hottest defensive coordinators in the country? Or try to lure one of the hot head coaching names, Chris Petersen of Boise State or Gary Patterson of TCU? The point is if you replace Richt, his successor might not be any better than him.

The quandary for new AD Greg McGarity comes in the second half of the season. How many of the given rivals must Georgia beat for Richt to stick around? Florida? Georgia Tech? Auburn? Is it simply to be bowl-eligible? If I were McGarity, Richt would need eight wins. If that includes a bowl win, that's fine.

How will that happen? Richt's already used his patented fourth quarter team meeting at midfield. There can't be many more of those for a successful season. A.J. Green's return obviously will bolster the offense, but the offense hasn't been the biggest problem. Yes, the offensive line struggled midway through the Arkansas game. And Aaron Murray held the ball too long at times, which contributed to a couple of the six sacks.

It's the leadership that doesn't seem to be prevalent. Clint Boling is the only obvious leader that can be seen from the stands. Richt could call all the in-game meetings, or proclaim to the media how big a game is, but until several leaders establish themselves, the Dawgs could be in for another seven- or eight-win season.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Week 3 picks

Went 3-2 last week, and am 7-3 on the young season. But this appears to be the toughest week to date. Here we go.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Utah State +4 vs. Fresno State
Fresno State has been increasingly overvalued among the general public, while Utah State is a bit underrated. Take the Aggies' opener at Oklahoma when they only lost 31-24, a much better result than Florida State (47-17) had last week, both in Norman.

The home team is 7-1 in the last eight games in the series, and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

Key stats: Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Bulldogs are 10-24 ATS in their last 34 conference games. Aggies are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Aggies are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.

The Pick: Utah State and take the points.

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank

Arkansas +2.5 at Georgia
Tough game to call because of the Dawgs' lackluster effort last week in Columbia, and the Hogs' first two opponents, Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe. Will Georgia bounce back defensively, and perform better against the pass than it did against Marcus Lattimore and the Gamecocks? Will Arkansas fare better than last year's 0-4 road record in the SEC?

While Mark Richt has openly labeled this a big game for his program, fans, players and coaches, it's easier to see Arkansas winning a shootout than the Dawgs out-scoring the Hogs for the second straight year. You could go with the more experienced quarterback, or the mounting pressure against Richt and his team, knowing an 0-2 start in the SEC is nearly insurmountable.

Key stats: Georgia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games following a straight up loss. Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

It could easily come down to a late field goal, and that edge goes to Georgia. But Ryan Mallett and Co. will put it out of reach before that.

The Pick: Arkansas and the points.

Auburn -7 vs. Clemson

The War Eagle Tigers are another difficult team to read given that their defense looked soft against Arkansas State, but made just enough plays to hold off a late drive from Mississippi State on the road. Clemson, meanwhile, hasn't been tested yet, but has given up a lot of points to North Texas and Presbyterian. The Hartwell Lake Tigers have a long and infamous history of disappointing or choking in big games. (Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.) With ESPN GameDay on hand, it's ripe for another example. However, being a near touchdown underdog is just the kind of game Clemson wins before losing a similar game as a favorite a week or two later.

Auburn's won 13 straight in this series, most recently a 23-20 win in the 2007 Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

The Pick: War Eagle and lay the points.

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Baylor +21.5 at TCU
Despite the Horned Frogs' success, they are somewhat vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks. Insert Baylor's Robert Griffin III, who had his freshman season cut short by a knee injury, but still amassed more than 2,000 passing yards and 800 rushing.

TCU will almost certainly win, but when Texas boys get together, it's difficult to win by more than three touchdowns. They're familiar with each other, and too tough to give in easily.

Key stats: Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Horned Frogs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big 12.

The Pick: The Bears and all those points.

Notre Dame +3.5 at Michigan State
Provided Dayne Crist can see out of both eyes this week, the Irish offense should be a little more crisp. Michigan State has out-gained Notre Dame the last four seasons, but that should end this week. The Irish have played vastly better teams to open the season, Connecticut and Michigan, versus Florida Atlantic and Western Michigan.

Two items that stand out: The Spartans had trouble closing out Florida Atlantic, and their secondary is vulnerable. Look for the Irish to win a relative shootout.

Key stat: The road team is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

The Pick: The Irish and take the points just in case.


Last week: 3-2 ATS

Overall: 7-3 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 3-0

Piggy bank: 2-2

Father-in-law: 2-1

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

The Spiller Thriller song

Having just listened to the C.J. Spiller song from the Buffalo band, Sudden Urge, I'm surprised it took this long to hear such a thing. But as songs about professional athletes go, it's not bad.

Wouldn't it have been a nice complement to those yardstick posters Clemson sent out last year to kickoff his Heisman campaign?

My favorite lyric: "You wipe your eyes, and, ask who is this new rookie in town...but all the while...he's busting right through your defensive line."

Monday, September 13, 2010

Weekend highlights

Calvin Johnson and LaMichael James were two of the most talked about highlights this weekend. Johnson, a Detroit wide receiver, for his disallowed touchdown, and James, an Oregon running back, for his jaw-dropping score in a rout at Tennessee.

In Detroit's near-win over Chicago, Johnson appeared to catch a 25-yard go-ahead touchdown. But after what initially looked to be a TD, the referee announced that Johnson didn't "complete the catch during the process of the catch." Put simply, Johnson shouldn't have let the ball touch the ground. Even though he got both feet in bounds and landed with the ball, the fact that the ball touched the ground as he landed prevented the completion.



Here, James reverses course, then somehow manages to stay in bounds, and wiggle out of the grasp of a would-be tackler. No matter what happens the rest of the season, this will be one of the great rushing touchdowns of 2010.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Week 2 picks

Went 4-1 last week to start the season. Here's this week's installment.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Oregon -12 at Tennessee

Forget last week’s rehearsal against Tennessee-Martin, this is a lean season for the Big Orange. The Ducks, conversely, are one of the most talented teams in the country. A preseason interview I heard with Oregon coach Chip Kelly had more of a quiet confidence than tired clichés. There is some concern about Oregon traveling across country. Don’t be distracted by the Pac-10’s struggles historically in Knoxville. A week after beating New Mexico 72-0, the Ducks get star RB LaMichael James back following a suspension. As long as this stays under two touchdowns, the Ducks should cover.

Key stat: At least seven players on the Vols’ offense will make their first or second career start against the Ducks.

Pick: Oregon and give the points

NFL: Dolphins -3 at Bills

I know, I know, picking the NFL is easier blindfolded. And it’s more likely a monkey or walrus will have a better record, this is too good to pass up.

The Dolphins are a dark horse pick to win the AFC East, and are slowly turning into a contender under Tony Sparano. The Bills are starting an average quarterback with confidence issues, and a rookie running back. While the Bills averaged four yards per rush last season, it’s the front seven on defense that will let them down against the league’s best Wildcat offense. While C.J. Spiller might have some highlights, and the Bills will give a gritty effort, the Fish will ease to victory, and more importantly, cover.

Pick: Dolphins and give the points

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank:

Notre Dame -3.5 vs. Michigan

The public money is flowing big-time toward the Wolverines, (nearly 80 percent) and this is a classic case of going against the public. Don’t ‘chase the tails’ and let stats like these fool you:

· Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

· Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.

Along those lines, there have been five straight upsets in South Bend in this series, and six straight overall. Again, the Irish are due.

Last week’s win over UConn aside, Michigan’s defense wasn’t that good last year, and lost its best player (Brandon Graham) to the NFL.

Pick: Irish and give the points

Stanford -6 at UCLA

Unless it’s a huge mismatch (see Oregon-Tennessee) home dogs are tough to pass up in college. Toby Gerhart (134 yards, 3 TDs) was the main reason the Cardinal snapped a 5-game losing streak in the series last year. The Bruins have won six straight at home against Stanford by 12 points per game (another reason last year was a Gerhart abberation). Rick Neuheisel is 4-1 against Stanford. UCLA has won six of its last 10 home games against ranked opponents.

Pick: Bruins and take the points

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Alabama -12 vs. Penn State

A true freshman quarterback’s first road game before 100,000+ on a Saturday night at Bryant-Denny? That has turnover-mania written all over it, but that’s what the Nittany Lions are faced with. It would be easier for the Crimson Tide to cover this with Mark Ingram, but the defense will make up for it against PSU’s Robert Bolden. With Bobby Bowden on hand as a guest of Alabama, and it being Bear Bryant’s birthday, that’s a lot to overcome for the blue and white. Lions are 3-9 since 2001 against teams ranked in the top 10, but are 10 of 12 away from home vs. BCS teams (credit: Phil Steele). The main hesitation here is Bama’s offense against a solid Penn State defense that only allowed 20 or more points in three games last season. Not to mention, Penn State is 8-1 on the road the last two seasons.

Pick: Crimson Tide and give the points

Last week: 4-1 (4-1 ATS)

Overall: 4-1 (4-1 ATS)

Breakdown:

401(k): 1-0

Piggy bank: 2-0

Father-in-law: 1-1

50 greatest college dunks of all time

This is a good one to file away in a few weeks, and then reminisce about where you were when they happened live. It's 14 minutes, but the graphics and editing are top notch.

The No. 1 dunk? Of course it's Jerome Lane against Providence, which jump-started Bill Raftery's broadcasting career.

Before that, there's glass shattering against the Tar Heels at No. 8. Then Cincinnati's Melvin Levett coming from nowhere for a sky-high putback.

The good ones start with an old-school one-handed tomahawk from Jerry Stackhouse against Virginia Tech.

Cat fans, remember Derek Anderson over Andrae Patterson and UofL?

The Cards were also on the wrong end of a Renaldo Balkman slam. Balkman, by the way, had a great highlight to points scored ratio, didn't he?

A good one for the Cards was one of their all-time greats, LaBradford Smith, skying over DePaul in Freedom Hall.

How about Georgia guard Travis Leslie's coming out dunk against DeMarcus Cousins last season?

Sid the Kid hits home run

Arguably the NHL's best player, Sidney Crosby, hit a home run before Wednesday's game at PNC Park in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and Braves. Any chance the Pirates offer him a contract?

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

The price of happiness

Finally, there's a number associated with one of life's all-time questions. It's $75,000.

A recent study, which collected information from 450,000 people surveyed by Gallup, says people who earn $75,000 a year experienced a lot of enjoyment, laughter, smiling and presumably less anger, stress and worry.

When well-being was determined by asking a series of questions about the previous day - whether people had experienced a lot of enjoyment, laughter, smiling, anger, stress or worry, income matters.

In other words, money can buy happiness, but there’s a ceiling. After $75,000, more money didn't seem to buy more - or less - happiness. Of course, poor people might say, 'Give me a winning lottery ticket and see if I'm sad.'

Relationships and health have long been established as elements of life that are priceless. This study's authors have said those are two things to be concerned with after reaching that income level.

While more money helps ease pains such as divorce, poor health and loneliness, simple pleasures are less likely to be appreciated as your income builds.

These surveys always remind me of the billionaires who drive used cars, live in the same house for 40 years, and never moved out of their hometown.

Something that might skew the study is the older you are, the more likely you are to make that kind of cash. And older people are generally happier, according to studies.

The survey also found that:

  • Extroverts are happier than introverts.

  • Happiness increases as people get older, though happiness takes a dip between the ages of 35 and 44, when demands of career and parenting may be greatest. 

  • Empty-nesters tend to be particularly happy, with seven out of 10 indicating that they were somewhat or very happy.
  • Democrats and Republicans are equally happy. Green Party types? Not so much. Only 52 percent reported being somewhat or very happy.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

The Boise State Argument

America is a country that historically roots for the underdog.

That changes, however, when that underdog is disrupting the blue blood traditions of college football. Enter Boise State, the former no-name with the gimmick field (the smurf turf) which has replaced Tim Tebow as the story that dominates and polarizes college football.

The Broncos turned the sport on its ear Monday night when they roared to a 17-0 lead, then came-from-behind to beat Virginia Tech in Landover, Md.

Immediately after the game, critics of the Broncos howled that they're still a fraud, masquerading as a team that builds a championship resume on a headline game only once or twice each season.

What those critics don't grasp is how Boise could help them get rid of the BCS. Wouldn't a Boise national championship spark BCS Conference athletics directors to avoid another embarrassment? Wouldn't that accelerate a playoff format?

Aside from a Heisman-contending quarterback, loads of experience on offense and defense, there's also their track record of success in big games.

The shocker against Oklahoma four years ago in the Fiesta Bowl. Then Boise opened the 2009 season with a home win over Oregon, and finished it with another Fiesta win against TCU. Toss in Monday's win against the Hokies, and that's four big-time wins. How many more do they need before they are recognized as legitimate?

You can't make a custom schedule just to send them through the gauntlet of Florida-Georgia-Alabama, or Oklahoma-Nebraska-Texas. Remember, those schedules would also include Iowa State-Colorado-Texas A&M and Vanderbilt-Tennessee (this season)-Ole Miss.

What's more, the Fiesta/BCS wins over Oklahoma and TCU are more BCS wins than Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State, Oregon and Tennessee combined. If you combined the BCS wins for Utah (another lower-level team) and Boise, it equals the total of the entire ACC.

Make no mistake, I'm not automatically putting Boise in the national title game the week of Labor Day. But if they continue to play - and win - like they did on Monday, they're at least the second best team in the country.

What's the difference between Boise and the Ohio State teams of the early 2000s? Was the Big Ten of then really much better than the WAC of today?

So put Boise in one of the power conferences like its critics want. What if it's a down year, or a down conference like the ACC? And what if Boise rolls through it like it does the WAC? What's the excuse now?

The Broncos play an exciting brand of football, are never predictable and overcame a slew of penalties against Virginia Tech.

They shouldn't be punished for a weak conference when they've done just about everything to upgrade their schedule. Win out, and they should return to familiar surroundings: Glendale, Ariz.

Associated Press Poll - Sept. 7

Top 25 (first place votes)

1. Alabama (47)
2. Ohio State (4)
3. Boise State (8)
4. TCU
5. Texas
6. Nebraska
7. Oregon
8. Florida
9. Iowa
10. Oklahoma
11. Wisconsin
12. Miami (FL)
13. Virginia Tech
14. Arkansas
15. Georgia Tech
16. USC
17. Florida State
18. Penn State
19. LSU
20. Utah
21. Auburn
22. Georgia
23. West Virginia
24. South Carolina
25. Stanford
Dropped: Pittsburgh (15), North Carolina (18)

Monday, September 6, 2010

Opening weekend: Hail Mary and an SEC upset

Not many people looked at the Jacksonville State-Ole Miss and East Carolina-Tulsa games before the weekend started. But thanks to a shocking upset in double overtime, and a Hail Mary, they're the talk of the college football world.



And don't forget the best trick play of the weekend.
Presbyterian vs. Wake Forest.


Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Week 1 picks

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Kentucky (-3) at Louisville

In time, first-year coach Charlie Strong will get UofL back to the level of the pre-Kragthorpe days. It just won't happen this soon. Especially against a team with an established running game and not as much turnover on the coaching staff. For 10 straight years, the team that has had more rushing yards won the game. Make it 11 after Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke are finished with the Cards. Not only has UK won the last three over UofL, the Cats have also covered. Don't let the rivalry, or the opening of the newly expanded Papa John's Cardinal Stadium distract you from what should be an easy win for Big Blue.

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank:

Minnesota (-1.5) at Middle Tennessee State

Line has dropped from 3 since yesterday. This game will likely hinge on the QB switch for the Blue Raiders from Dwight Dasher to Logan Kilgore. (Dasher accepted a $1,500 loan, an NCAA violation). Dasher is a senior, Kilgore, a junior college transfer who hasn't started a D-1 game. Dasher led the team in rushing last season and passed for more than 2,700. The Gophers are 11-1 vs. current Sun Belt teams with an average margin of victory of 32 points. They've also won seven of the last eight road openers (credit: Phil Steele). The Gophers have a new defense and a commitment to run the ball, which they hope gets away from the deluge of sacks which was last season's theme. Take the Gophers, give the points, and pad your emergency fund.

UConn (+3) at Michigan

Rarely is a team as bad as advertised in the offseason. Put the Wolverines in that category this season. This is a classic case of going against public opinion. Big Blue still returns 15 starters and 53 lettermen. Most of those, especially the starters, were recruited for coach Rich Rodriguez' offensive scheme. The Huskies have won four straight road openers, so they're due to drop one.

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Boise State (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech (at FedEx Field)

This must be an odds-makers dream, with every other person picking the other team. You've got the argument of Virginia Tech's recent struggles to start season. That's combined with Boise State putting most of its stock of the entire season into this game. The Hokies, of course, lost to Alabama and East Carolina to start each of the last two seasons. Just like Va. Tech is primed for a big boost to start the season, Boise State, though, is due for a let down against the big boys. The Broncos have won four of their last five against BCS opponents including wins over Oregon the last two seasons. They've had all offseason to bask in the limelight and they simply won't be able to pull it through.

Southern Methodist (+13.5) at Texas Tech

If you missed June Jones' reclamation project at Hawaii, he's doing it again at SMU. The Mustangs went from 1-11 in 2008 to 8-5 last season, including a 45-10 win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl. That offense, coupled with the Red Raiders' suspect defense, and a new coaching staff under Tommy Tuberville, are reasons why this one will stay within two touchdowns. You can bank on the Mustangs' upperclassmen having a long memory to the '08 season when Texas Tech won 43-7.