Bracket tips, strategy and advice to win your office pool

Before we get started, a hat tip to R.J. Bell at Pregame.com for the historical percentages below. (Twitter: @RJinVegas)

Don’t even bother with a No. 16 seed upset, they’ve never won in the Tournament. No. 15 seeds have only won four times, and No. 13 and No. 14 seeds win less than 20 percent of the time.

It’s fun to look like you’re a risk taker, but Thelma in accounting won’t even take those risks.

While we get started, go ahead and advance the No. 1 seeds to the third round. Sure, Kansas lost last year, and Kentucky in 2004 lost in the second round. But the odds are with you to go chalk here.

But pick out a couple No. 12 seeds. They’ve won at least one game in 20 of 22 years. Look at Richmond or Memphis as the best candidates here. Vanderbilt has lost early before, and Memphis turned it on late in the C-USA tournament. Go ahead and push those underdogs through to the second round. The No. 12 and 10 seeds win more than half of the time in the second round.

No. 9 seeds have won 54 percent of their games, so here’s another spot to pick out at least two possibilities.

Only once in 26 years have all 12 top seeds (1-3) made the Sweet 16. Along those lines, a double-digit seed has made 24 of the last 26 Sweet 16s. In this category, I like Missouri’s draw to beat Cincinnati and a UConn team that could have peaked in the Big East tournament. Also check out Utah State. The Aggies have only lost three times, the only team with that few losses outside of the top 10.

Don’t get too cozy with seeds No. 13-16, they win less than one percent of the time in the second round.

In the third round, more No. 1 seeds make the Elite 8 than No. 5 seeds who win period. This is where you get into the No. 10 seeds and better. Twenty four No. 11 seeds or worse have made the Sweet 16, and only one has advanced.

Pick one or two No. 1 seeds to the Final Four, because odds are that no more than two will make it to Houston.

No need to roll the dice after that. Only two of 104 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than No. 8. No team worse than a No. 6 seed has made the championship game in the last 25 years.

Need a tiebreaker in the championship? For 22 straight years, a No. 4 seed or better has cut down the nets.

Enjoy, and if Thelma beats you in the office pool, don’t blame me.