The weight of preseason No. 1

Sure, Alabama is the consensus preseason No. 1. But that hardly means the Crimson Tide will sit atop the polls in January. Sure, it was an easy pick for the SEC media to win the league championship. But that group has only been correct three times since 1992.

Certainly it will be more difficult with the absence of RB Mark Ingram (knee), if only for two or three weeks.

Even beyond the SEC, the historical challenge of starting and finishing the season on top is rare. Since 1991, it has happened three times: FSU in 1993 and 1999, and USC in 2004. Here's a sampling of the preseason and postseason No. 1s since 2002.

Preseason Postseason
2002 Miami Ohio State
2003 Alabama/Oklahoma USC/LSU
2004 USC USC
2005 USC Texas
2006 Ohio State Florida
2007 USC LSU
2008 Georgia Florida
2009 Florida Alabama

The questions for Alabama are mainly on defense and special teams. They have to replace nine starters on defense, including six draftees, although many of last year's backups saw significant playing time, and all three main specialists. Kicker, punter, returner, but also long snapper and holder.

Of course the schedule is tough, with a well-documented six games against teams who have their bye week scheduled the week before playing the Crimson Tide. Not to mention road games against Arkansas and LSU.

It's difficult to bet against Nick Saban when he's on the college sidelines. But all it takes is a blocked kick, injury (see above) or wacky turnover to derail a championship run. History is tough to argue against.