NBA Finals preview, prediction: Can Celtics overcome Kobe, Phil a second time?

Arguably the most recognizable NBA Finals matchup, the Celtics vs. Lakers, begins again tomorrow in the City of Angels. The teams are meeting for the 12th time in the Finals with the Celtics owning a 9-2 edge. These two franchises have won the most championships in NBA history, with the Celtics owning 17 to the Lakers’ 15.

As Bob Ryan wrote in The Boston Globe, “The Celtics and Lakers already have met more times to decide a major American sports championship than any two clubs have in any of our four major team sports.”

While you might say that Phil Jackson gets the easy nod in the coaching column, remember Doc Rivers was the coach two years ago when the Celtics beat the Lakers. The better question might be will Paul Pierce turn in the same kind of performance that helped him win MVP honors?

To do that, he’s going to have to at least neutralize an in-the-groove Kobe Bryant.

It was Bryant who made two unbelievable shots in the clinching game against Phoenix around and over a double team that included tough defense from Grant Hill.
While you obviously need a quality supporting cast to reach the Finals, superstars are the ones who separate themselves and earn the hardware.

So make no mistake, while the Celtics have more of the better players among the 10 in the starting lineups, the Celtics don’t have a player on par with Kobe Bryant. The difference the last time, though, was the Celtics’ physical play against the likes of big men Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

Jackson has already launched one of his patented pre-series comments about the opposing team’s best player (Kevin Garnett, in Jackson’s mind) in hopes of planting a seed in the referees’ minds.

Kobe aside, the most important player in this series could be Rajon Rondo, who played arguably the best stretch of his career in the beginning of the Eastern Conference Finals as Boston coasted to a 3-0 series lead. Rondo gives the Lakers, like many opponents, matchup problems. Will they leave Derek Fisher on him and risk a lot of dribble penetration? Or will they take Ron Artest and hope to rough him up a bit?

Artest is the only player in either starting lineup who wasn’t in the 2008 series. He was signed, instead of Trevor Ariza, for matchups like this one against Pierce.

It’s these kinds of matchups that always decide the Finals, the time when even the casual sports fans tunes in.

While it’s difficult to go against Kobe and Phil, put me in the corner that will take the Celtics in seven games. They’re more physical, Rondo will be too much for Fisher, and Pierce will have just enough to cancel out Kobe.

The teams will split the first two games in L.A., then Boston will get two more at home in the middle of the series, and wrap it up on the road in Game 6.