Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Can mood swings be set to a clock?
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
NFL over-policing hit policy
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Week 7 picks
Overall: 16-13 ATS
Breakdown year to date:
401(k): 4-3
Piggy bank: 7-6
Father-in-law: 5-4
Willian vs. Farner vol. 2




Louisville (+2.5) vs Cincinnati:
Brent: Louisville is still trying to put pieces together in Charlie Strong’s first year, but it has looked noticeably better each week. A dominating 56-0 win over Memphis should be a big confidence boost heading into the conference opener. UC’s pass defense has been among the worst in the nation, which should open some doors for a steadily improving UofL passing game, led by JUCO transfer WR Josh Bellamy. On the flip side, UC is giving up only 84 rushing yards per game, which could neutralize UofL’s most dangerous offensive weapon, RB Bilal Powell. The key to this game will be whether UofL can run the ball, control the clock, and get the crowd into it early. The Keg of Nails returns to Louisville in a nail-biter. Louisville 24, Cincinnati 20
Keith: The teams have had a similar schedule: Easy wins last week that followed narrow losses against Oklahoma and Oregon State. The Bearcats' QB
Zach Collaros has a great TD/INT ratio: 12:1, and a couple of quality receivers to get the ball to. The stat I love is the Bearcats' run defense, which Brent mentioned. That'll put the game in Adam Froman's hands, and Cincinnati will take its chances.
The favorite is 10-3 in their last 13 meetings, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five. Smell a trend? Cincinnati 24, Louisville 21
USC (-2.5) vs Cal:
Brent: USC has lost two straight Pac-10 games by a combined 3 points, both of which were decided by a last-second field goal. USC now sits at 1-2 in the Pac-10. Simply put, USC is in danger of joining the likes of Washington State at the bottom of the conference, and if Kiffin’s boys want to have any chance of saving their season, they must win this game with #2 Oregon in the on-deck circle. Cal’s defense has been solid this year, although it’s tough to forget the 52 points they gave up to Nevada a few weeks back. USC wins a close one. USC 27, Cal 24
Keith: After the Nevada debacle, the Golden Bears' defense has recovered and
linebacker Mychal Kendricks even leads the Pac-10 with four sacks. That defense held UCLA's running game to less than three yards per carry. USC is coming off of two grueling games against Stanford and Washington. USC gave up eight yards per play against Stanford. Meanwhile, t
he Golden Bears' memory of the Nevada game might be the score, but they averaged almost 8.5 yards per play. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Southern California and the r
oad team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. This is my double-shot pick of the week. Cal 31, USC 24Arkansas (+3.5) @ Auburn:
Brent: At some point, the close calls have to catch up with Auburn, right? The Tigers put up 31 first-half points against Kentucky last weekend before letting UK come all the way back and tie the score at 34. Auburn has been decent against the run this year, but has shown great vulnerability against the pass. Enter Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, who has thrown for almost 1,800 yards in five games. Mallett, along with a solid defense that has not given up more than 24 points in a game this season, will lead Arkansas to an important SEC road victory. Arkansas 34, Auburn 30.
Keith: Sure, Auburn has made a living with the close games, but don't underestimate another one, especially knowing arch-rival Alabama is beatable. The Tigers won't miss the chance to be undefeated for the Iron Bowl. What's more, don't get too caught up in Arkansas' near-upset of Alabama. The same Hogs almost lose to Georgia and barely got by Texas A&M. Cam Newton and the Auburn coaching staff will want to increase his Heisman candidacy, and no one has shown an ability to slow him down yet. Auburn 30, Arkansas 24
Wisconsin (+4) @ Ohio State:
Brent: I will admit that all signs seem to point to Ohio State in this one. They are #1, they have a Heisman candidate QB, and their defense has been among the best in the country thus far. But the Badgers have already lost to Michigan State, and a loss to the Buckeyes will make it tough to climb back into contention in the Big 10. In the end, that motivation likely will not be enough to overcome Terrelle Pryor. The Sweater Vest comes away with the victory in this one, but it will be close and OSU will fail to cover the spread. Ohio State 23, Wisconsin 20.
Keith: Another team looking to gain from the Crimson Tide loss last week, new No. 1 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are motivated by a chance to play for a national title and finally quiet down all of those SEC haters. The fact that OSU has largely played to the level of its competition this year will help in this game, with ESPN GameDay being on hand. The Bucks played well against Miami, yet struggled against Illinois and Indiana. Look for them to cover a big game here. Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 21
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Re-living the Gamecocks' win over No. 1 Alabama
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Week 6 picks
Last week, for the third straight week, I went 2-3, which means I'm primed for a hot streak. Plus, I'm 2-0 on the NFL this season.
Empty your 401 (k) here:
Oregon State +8 at Arizona
As I said in the Willian vs. Farner vol. 1 post, the Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Arizona, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in the series. In Arizona’s home games against BCS Conference teams (Iowa and Cal) they’ve won by a combined eight points. The Cats will win, but it’ll be close.
It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank:
Kentucky +6 vs. Auburn
This began the week at 7.5, so you can see how many pounced on the Cats. I always like to go the other way when two teams are headed in opposite directions like these. Auburn seems like it’ll win every close game. Kentucky hasn’t done much right the last two weeks against Florida and Ole Miss. That's why you go opposite those trends if it looks too easy. Some wise guys say to fade the team that ESPN shows the most highlights of in a close matchup like this. In this case, it’s Auburn and Cam Newton, who has snuck on to some Heisman watch lists. Sure Auburn is undefeated, but its three toughest wins could have easily been losses. All of them. Kentucky’s good enough to avoid a three-game losing streak, especially at home.
Utah -6 at Iowa State
Utah hasn’t faced a strong opponent since opening against Pittsburgh, but has coasted over lesser teams like New Mexico and San Jose State.
It’s been under the radar behind Boise State and TCU in the non-automatic qualifier category this season. But the Utes have a strong defense, No. 7 in the country, and look hardly the team that had to replace seven starters on defense, including all three starting linebackers. Utah hasn’t surrendered a single touchdown in its last five quarters of action.
While Iowa State’s passing looked good last week against Texas Tech, look for the Cyclones to return to their season-long trend this week.
The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. MWC.
Key stat: Utah is 5-0 under Kyle Whittingham when coming off a bye week.
Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:
Texas A&M +5.5 vs. Arkansas
Played at a neutral site, the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, it’s easy to take a knee-jerk reaction and go with the Hogs and lay the points. But the Aggies are averaging nearly 40 points per game, and only loss was 38-35 at Oklahoma State. Look for Arkansas to come out slow following the Alabama loss and a week off. This could be a revealing game that the supposed second-best team in the SEC could be in for a tight one.
Bengals -6.5 vs. Bucs
The Bengals struggled last week against the Browns, despite a big day from Terrell Owens. The Bucs are coming off a bye, and are mostly unproven, with wins over Cleveland and Carolina, and a blowout loss to Pittsburgh. It’s easy to read too much into one game, or think it carries over. The Bengals will do everything they can do avoid losing two straight going into a bye week.
Overall: 13-11 ATS
Breakdown year to date:
401(k): 3-3
Piggy bank: 5-6
Father-in-law: 5-3
