Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Can mood swings be set to a clock?

You might not be able to set your watch to it, but if you're into winning an argument, or getting an extra benefit - or raise - from your boss, this survey could come in handy.

A poll by pharmaceuticals and contraceptives manufacturer Bayer Schering reports mood swings are a fact of life, but it also marks times of day when each gender is most vulnerable. And the long-held stereotype that women have sharper mood swings is understandably overplayed, according to this poll. The scientific explanation points to hormones and biorhythms that give way to natural mood swings in everyone.

The story in the Daily Mail about the poll said, "some 86 percent of the 1,019 men and women polled said they were aware of regular peaks and troughs in their mood. But, perhaps not surprisingly, less than half of these had even thought of capitalising on the phenomenon."

Perhaps the most hot button part of this poll, and one you might have heard on your favorite morning radio show, was that 6 p.m. is when men are most likely to grant a loved one's wish. And women are most likely to win at argument at 3 p.m. (Plus, any story that refers to "rubbish" or a statement like "steer clear of having a row mid-afternoon" is good by me.)

The 6 p.m. thing is directly related to the end of the work day and guys wanting to relax, whatever the cost.

The most logical part of the study is asking something of your boss at 1 p.m. It's just after lunch, they're more relaxed, they've put out whatever crises happened in the morning, and before any big problems arise in the afternoon.

So test out these theories, and report back here.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

NFL over-policing hit policy

With its stranglehold at the top of the American sports culture, the NFL has done a lot of great things through marketing and publicity to weave its way into daily life of nearly every household in this country. Just look at how many people care about meaningless games because of straight up gambling, fantasy football, knockout pools etc.

The league has been great at publicizing that October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month or proactive moves like the First Down Line (although I believe FOX can take credit there).

But the NFL's new policy on "devastating hits" has over-stepped its bounds, and jeopardized the fundamentals of the game. It's an overreaction of a weekend of three big hits, which were replayed over and over and is likely a part of why this decision was made. (I doubt the same decision would have been made in the days before ESPN and the NFL Network.)

While baseball has taken heat for smaller ballparks and records shattered by steroid use, the NFL could go down the same path if lesser players are able to make more plays - especially over the middle - because they don't have to contend with the threat of as much contact.

This smacks of hypocrisy as one of the other ongoing headlines in the NFL is the expanding of the regular season by two games to 18. How can you penalize "devastating hits" and promote concussion awareness while subjecting players to additional games? (And we all know even if they cut two preseason games, the speed and intensity is not even comparable.)

While, sure, you can avoid some blatant hits of truly defenseless players with better fundamentals, or a healthier punishment like a suspension, the bottom line is the game is designed to produce collisions. And there may even be the argument that defensive players trying to avoid a suspension might play slower and subject themselves to other potential injuries.

Football simply can't be regulated in this way or it'll be relegated to rugby or even flag football.

For starters, let's enforce the rule already in place. An illegal hit is leaping, launching (leaving your feet) or leading with your helmet, shoulder or forearm to the head of a defenseless player. But isn't every receiver on a crossing pattern over the middle defenseless? And how can a defensive back, at that speed, only hit the torso of an opponent? What's more, a player with the ball is not defenseless. A classic example is Dunta Robinson's legal hit of DeSean Jackson, who had the ball and Robinson's shoulder hit Jackson in the chest.

The league should better define its "new" rule so defensive players don't have to change how they attack the offense. Safety is one thing, but football is a violent sport and injuries and dangerous hits can't be avoided entirely.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Week 7 picks

On the strength of a 3-1 college record, I went 3-2 last week to maintain a winning percentage of 55 percent. While some might look at this week's lines and say, "Man, I feel like I'm shopping at Rodeo Drive, there's no value," you only have to look a little deeper.

Watch out for a double shot of your 401 (k).

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Hawaii +7 vs. Nevada
Hawaii is undervalued and matches up very well against Nevada. One underused stat, yards per pass attempt, is huge in this game. The Rainbows have averaged seven or eight yards per pass in every game. Nevada's weakness? You guessed it, a weak pass defense. This will be a shootout, but look for a backdoor cover.

The Pick: Hawaii and take the points

Cal +2.5 at USC
The Golden Bears are improving, especially on defense. USC is leaking oil and some wonder if Lane Kiffin has lost the team. Why can't defensive guru Monte Kiffin install his patented defense using a bunch of top notch recruits? The Trojans have given up 30+ points in each of their last two games. A classic letdown situation for a Trojans team at home coming off of a near-upset of Stanford.

The Pick: Golden Bears and maybe an outright win

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank:

Maryland +15 at Clemson
In the word's of everyone's favorite handicapper, Wes Watt, "who the heck is Clemson to be giving 15 points?" My feelings exactly, Wattanator. There were many who wondered about Clemson following to cupcake wins to open the season. And after losses to Auburn, Miami and North Carolina, the Tigers haven't answered any of those questions. The Terps' only loss, meanwhile, is to West Virginia, and they've covered in every win.

The Pick: The Terps and the points

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

South Carolina -5 at Kentucky
Some might say this is a letdown spot for the Gamecocks, and any other year, you might be right. But this isn't your father's Chickens. Those teams didn't have Alshon Jeffery and Marcus Lattimore caliber players. Add in the Derrick Locke injury for Big Blue, and this one looks like another step toward Atlanta for the Ol' Ball Coach. The Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Kentucky and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

The Pick: Take the Gamecocks and lay the points

Ohio State -4 at Wisconsin
Another potential letdown spot for the Buckeyes, but they've won three straight against the Badgers, and two of those were by at least two touchdowns. They only have a road game at Iowa to prove Ohio State belongs in the BCS National Title game, so it's imperative they take care of business here.

The Pick: Buckeyes and give the points

Last week: 3-2 ATS

Overall: 16-13 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 4-3

Piggy bank: 7-6

Father-in-law: 5-4

Willian vs. Farner vol. 2






Willian vs. Farner





Brent took it on the chin last week, dropping four of five games, including his double-shot pick of the week, Alabama -6.5. "this is a bad week to try to get back on track. A lot of tough games."

Let's see how we fare this time.

Starting off with the Thursday night special.

WVU (-10.5) vs South Florida:

Brent: Coming off a home loss to Syracuse, South Florida now must face arguably the best team in the Big East. Granted, the title of “best team in the Big East” isn’t much of a compliment this year. Nevertheless, Morgantown is always a tough place to play, and West Virginia is developing a nicely balanced offense, led by speedy back Noel Devine. I look for Devine to put up big numbers against a defense that gave up 139 rushing yards to a similar back, Florida’s Jeff Demps, in Week 2. This is my double-shot pick of the week. West Virginia 31, South Florida 17

Keith: South Florida has a history of knocking the couch burners out of the top 25 poll. Last year, the Bulls won 30-19, and in '06 and '07, South Florida knocked West Virginia out of the top 10. I don't see the Bulls pulling another upset, but they did hang with Florida for a half, and the lone win in their 1-4 record in their last five games against ranked opponents came against the Mountaineers. West Virginia 27, South Florida 21

Louisville (+2.5) vs Cincinnati:


Brent: Louisville is still trying to put pieces together in Charlie Strong’s first year, but it has looked noticeably better each week. A dominating 56-0 win over Memphis should be a big confidence boost heading into the conference opener. UC’s pass defense has been among the worst in the nation, which should open some doors for a steadily improving UofL passing game, led by JUCO transfer WR Josh Bellamy. On the flip side, UC is giving up only 84 rushing yards per game, which could neutralize UofL’s most dangerous offensive weapon, RB Bilal Powell. The key to this game will be whether UofL can run the ball, control the clock, and get the crowd into it early. The Keg of Nails returns to Louisville in a nail-biter. Louisville 24, Cincinnati 20


Keith: The teams have had a similar schedule: Easy wins last week that followed narrow losses against Oklahoma and Oregon State. The Bearcats' QB

Zach Collaros has a great TD/INT ratio: 12:1, and a couple of quality receivers to get the ball to. The stat I love is the Bearcats' run defense, which Brent mentioned. That'll put the game in Adam Froman's hands, and Cincinnati will take its chances.

The favorite is 10-3 in their last 13 meetings, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five. Smell a trend? Cincinnati 24, Louisville 21


USC (-2.5) vs Cal:

Brent: USC has lost two straight Pac-10 games by a combined 3 points, both of which were decided by a last-second field goal. USC now sits at 1-2 in the Pac-10. Simply put, USC is in danger of joining the likes of Washington State at the bottom of the conference, and if Kiffin’s boys want to have any chance of saving their season, they must win this game with #2 Oregon in the on-deck circle. Cal’s defense has been solid this year, although it’s tough to forget the 52 points they gave up to Nevada a few weeks back. USC wins a close one. USC 27, Cal 24


Keith: After the Nevada debacle, the Golden Bears' defense has recovered and

linebacker Mychal Kendricks even leads the Pac-10 with four sacks. That defense held UCLA's running game to less than three yards per carry. USC is coming off of two grueling games against Stanford and Washington. USC gave up eight yards per play against Stanford. Meanwhile, t

he Golden Bears' memory of the Nevada game might be the score, but they averaged almost 8.5 yards per play. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Southern California and the r

oad team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
This is my double-shot pick of the week. Cal 31, USC 24

Arkansas (+3.5) @ Auburn:


Brent: At some point, the close calls have to catch up with Auburn, right? The Tigers put up 31 first-half points against Kentucky last weekend before letting UK come all the way back and tie the score at 34. Auburn has been decent against the run this year, but has shown great vulnerability against the pass. Enter Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, who has thrown for almost 1,800 yards in five games. Mallett, along with a solid defense that has not given up more than 24 points in a game this season, will lead Arkansas to an important SEC road victory. Arkansas 34, Auburn 30.


Keith: Sure, Auburn has made a living with the close games, but don't underestimate another one, especially knowing arch-rival Alabama is beatable. The Tigers won't miss the chance to be undefeated for the Iron Bowl. What's more, don't get too caught up in Arkansas' near-upset of Alabama. The same Hogs almost lose to Georgia and barely got by Texas A&M. Cam Newton and the Auburn coaching staff will want to increase his Heisman candidacy, and no one has shown an ability to slow him down yet. Auburn 30, Arkansas 24


Wisconsin (+4) @ Ohio State:


Brent: I will admit that all signs seem to point to Ohio State in this one. They are #1, they have a Heisman candidate QB, and their defense has been among the best in the country thus far. But the Badgers have already lost to Michigan State, and a loss to the Buckeyes will make it tough to climb back into contention in the Big 10. In the end, that motivation likely will not be enough to overcome Terrelle Pryor. The Sweater Vest comes away with the victory in this one, but it will be close and OSU will fail to cover the spread. Ohio State 23, Wisconsin 20.


Keith: Another team looking to gain from the Crimson Tide loss last week, new No. 1 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are motivated by a chance to play for a national title and finally quiet down all of those SEC haters. The fact that OSU has largely played to the level of its competition this year will help in this game, with ESPN GameDay being on hand. The Bucks played well against Miami, yet struggled against Illinois and Indiana. Look for them to cover a big game here. Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 21


Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Re-living the Gamecocks' win over No. 1 Alabama

The ripple effect of South Carolina's upset win over No. 1 Alabama will be seen for years. The first impact, though, could be seen through recruiting. That's ironic, since the Gamecocks' biggest recruits in recent memory, Alshon Jeffery and Marcus Lattimore, were two main reasons for the victory.

Here's a nice recap of the win, with a buildup off of the Crimson Tide's seemingly big win over Florida.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 6 picks

Last week, for the third straight week, I went 2-3, which means I'm primed for a hot streak. Plus, I'm 2-0 on the NFL this season.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Oregon State +8 at Arizona

As I said in the Willian vs. Farner vol. 1 post, the Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Arizona, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in the series. In Arizona’s home games against BCS Conference teams (Iowa and Cal) they’ve won by a combined eight points. The Cats will win, but it’ll be close.

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank:

Kentucky +6 vs. Auburn

This began the week at 7.5, so you can see how many pounced on the Cats. I always like to go the other way when two teams are headed in opposite directions like these. Auburn seems like it’ll win every close game. Kentucky hasn’t done much right the last two weeks against Florida and Ole Miss. That's why you go opposite those trends if it looks too easy. Some wise guys say to fade the team that ESPN shows the most highlights of in a close matchup like this. In this case, it’s Auburn and Cam Newton, who has snuck on to some Heisman watch lists. Sure Auburn is undefeated, but its three toughest wins could have easily been losses. All of them. Kentucky’s good enough to avoid a three-game losing streak, especially at home.

Utah -6 at Iowa State

Utah hasn’t faced a strong opponent since opening against Pittsburgh, but has coasted over lesser teams like New Mexico and San Jose State.

It’s been under the radar behind Boise State and TCU in the non-automatic qualifier category this season. But the Utes have a strong defense, No. 7 in the country, and look hardly the team that had to replace seven starters on defense, including all three starting linebackers. Utah hasn’t surrendered a single touchdown in its last five quarters of action.

While Iowa State’s passing looked good last week against Texas Tech, look for the Cyclones to return to their season-long trend this week.

The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. MWC.

Key stat: Utah is 5-0 under Kyle Whittingham when coming off a bye week.

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Texas A&M +5.5 vs. Arkansas

Played at a neutral site, the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, it’s easy to take a knee-jerk reaction and go with the Hogs and lay the points. But the Aggies are averaging nearly 40 points per game, and only loss was 38-35 at Oklahoma State. Look for Arkansas to come out slow following the Alabama loss and a week off. This could be a revealing game that the supposed second-best team in the SEC could be in for a tight one.

Bengals -6.5 vs. Bucs

The Bengals struggled last week against the Browns, despite a big day from Terrell Owens. The Bucs are coming off a bye, and are mostly unproven, with wins over Cleveland and Carolina, and a blowout loss to Pittsburgh. It’s easy to read too much into one game, or think it carries over. The Bengals will do everything they can do avoid losing two straight going into a bye week.

Last week: 2-3 ATS

Overall: 13-11 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 3-3

Piggy bank: 5-6

Father-in-law: 5-3