Willian vs. Farner vol. 2

Willian vs. Farner

Brent took it on the chin last week, dropping four of five games, including his double-shot pick of the week, Alabama -6.5. "this is a bad week to try to get back on track. A lot of tough games."

Let's see how we fare this time.

Starting off with the Thursday night special.

WVU (-10.5) vs South Florida:

Brent: Coming off a home loss to Syracuse, South Florida now must face arguably the best team in the Big East. Granted, the title of “best team in the Big East” isn’t much of a compliment this year. Nevertheless, Morgantown is always a tough place to play, and West Virginia is developing a nicely balanced offense, led by speedy back Noel Devine. I look for Devine to put up big numbers against a defense that gave up 139 rushing yards to a similar back, Florida’s Jeff Demps, in Week 2. This is my double-shot pick of the week. West Virginia 31, South Florida 17

Keith: South Florida has a history of knocking the couch burners out of the top 25 poll. Last year, the Bulls won 30-19, and in '06 and '07, South Florida knocked West Virginia out of the top 10. I don't see the Bulls pulling another upset, but they did hang with Florida for a half, and the lone win in their 1-4 record in their last five games against ranked opponents came against the Mountaineers. West Virginia 27, South Florida 21

Louisville (+2.5) vs Cincinnati:

Brent: Louisville is still trying to put pieces together in Charlie Strong’s first year, but it has looked noticeably better each week. A dominating 56-0 win over Memphis should be a big confidence boost heading into the conference opener. UC’s pass defense has been among the worst in the nation, which should open some doors for a steadily improving UofL passing game, led by JUCO transfer WR Josh Bellamy. On the flip side, UC is giving up only 84 rushing yards per game, which could neutralize UofL’s most dangerous offensive weapon, RB Bilal Powell. The key to this game will be whether UofL can run the ball, control the clock, and get the crowd into it early. The Keg of Nails returns to Louisville in a nail-biter. Louisville 24, Cincinnati 20

Keith: The teams have had a similar schedule: Easy wins last week that followed narrow losses against Oklahoma and Oregon State. The Bearcats' QB

Zach Collaros has a great TD/INT ratio: 12:1, and a couple of quality receivers to get the ball to. The stat I love is the Bearcats' run defense, which Brent mentioned. That'll put the game in Adam Froman's hands, and Cincinnati will take its chances.

The favorite is 10-3 in their last 13 meetings, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five. Smell a trend? Cincinnati 24, Louisville 21

USC (-2.5) vs Cal:

Brent: USC has lost two straight Pac-10 games by a combined 3 points, both of which were decided by a last-second field goal. USC now sits at 1-2 in the Pac-10. Simply put, USC is in danger of joining the likes of Washington State at the bottom of the conference, and if Kiffin’s boys want to have any chance of saving their season, they must win this game with #2 Oregon in the on-deck circle. Cal’s defense has been solid this year, although it’s tough to forget the 52 points they gave up to Nevada a few weeks back. USC wins a close one. USC 27, Cal 24

Keith: After the Nevada debacle, the Golden Bears' defense has recovered and

linebacker Mychal Kendricks even leads the Pac-10 with four sacks. That defense held UCLA's running game to less than three yards per carry. USC is coming off of two grueling games against Stanford and Washington. USC gave up eight yards per play against Stanford. Meanwhile, t

he Golden Bears' memory of the Nevada game might be the score, but they averaged almost 8.5 yards per play. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Southern California and the r

oad team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. This is my double-shot pick of the week. Cal 31, USC 24

Arkansas (+3.5) @ Auburn:

Brent: At some point, the close calls have to catch up with Auburn, right? The Tigers put up 31 first-half points against Kentucky last weekend before letting UK come all the way back and tie the score at 34. Auburn has been decent against the run this year, but has shown great vulnerability against the pass. Enter Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, who has thrown for almost 1,800 yards in five games. Mallett, along with a solid defense that has not given up more than 24 points in a game this season, will lead Arkansas to an important SEC road victory. Arkansas 34, Auburn 30.

Keith: Sure, Auburn has made a living with the close games, but don't underestimate another one, especially knowing arch-rival Alabama is beatable. The Tigers won't miss the chance to be undefeated for the Iron Bowl. What's more, don't get too caught up in Arkansas' near-upset of Alabama. The same Hogs almost lose to Georgia and barely got by Texas A&M. Cam Newton and the Auburn coaching staff will want to increase his Heisman candidacy, and no one has shown an ability to slow him down yet. Auburn 30, Arkansas 24

Wisconsin (+4) @ Ohio State:

Brent: I will admit that all signs seem to point to Ohio State in this one. They are #1, they have a Heisman candidate QB, and their defense has been among the best in the country thus far. But the Badgers have already lost to Michigan State, and a loss to the Buckeyes will make it tough to climb back into contention in the Big 10. In the end, that motivation likely will not be enough to overcome Terrelle Pryor. The Sweater Vest comes away with the victory in this one, but it will be close and OSU will fail to cover the spread. Ohio State 23, Wisconsin 20.

Keith: Another team looking to gain from the Crimson Tide loss last week, new No. 1 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are motivated by a chance to play for a national title and finally quiet down all of those SEC haters. The fact that OSU has largely played to the level of its competition this year will help in this game, with ESPN GameDay being on hand. The Bucks played well against Miami, yet struggled against Illinois and Indiana. Look for them to cover a big game here. Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 21

Re-living the Gamecocks' win over No. 1 Alabama

The ripple effect of South Carolina's upset win over No. 1 Alabama will be seen for years. The first impact, though, could be seen through recruiting. That's ironic, since the Gamecocks' biggest recruits in recent memory, Alshon Jeffery and Marcus Lattimore, were two main reasons for the victory.

Here's a nice recap of the win, with a buildup off of the Crimson Tide's seemingly big win over Florida.

Week 6 picks

Last week, for the third straight week, I went 2-3, which means I'm primed for a hot streak. Plus, I'm 2-0 on the NFL this season.

Empty your 401 (k) here:

Oregon State +8 at Arizona

As I said in the Willian vs. Farner vol. 1 post, the Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Arizona, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in the series. In Arizona’s home games against BCS Conference teams (Iowa and Cal) they’ve won by a combined eight points. The Cats will win, but it’ll be close.

It's OK to dip into the spare piggy bank:

Kentucky +6 vs. Auburn

This began the week at 7.5, so you can see how many pounced on the Cats. I always like to go the other way when two teams are headed in opposite directions like these. Auburn seems like it’ll win every close game. Kentucky hasn’t done much right the last two weeks against Florida and Ole Miss. That's why you go opposite those trends if it looks too easy. Some wise guys say to fade the team that ESPN shows the most highlights of in a close matchup like this. In this case, it’s Auburn and Cam Newton, who has snuck on to some Heisman watch lists. Sure Auburn is undefeated, but its three toughest wins could have easily been losses. All of them. Kentucky’s good enough to avoid a three-game losing streak, especially at home.

Utah -6 at Iowa State

Utah hasn’t faced a strong opponent since opening against Pittsburgh, but has coasted over lesser teams like New Mexico and San Jose State.

It’s been under the radar behind Boise State and TCU in the non-automatic qualifier category this season. But the Utes have a strong defense, No. 7 in the country, and look hardly the team that had to replace seven starters on defense, including all three starting linebackers. Utah hasn’t surrendered a single touchdown in its last five quarters of action.

While Iowa State’s passing looked good last week against Texas Tech, look for the Cyclones to return to their season-long trend this week.

The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. MWC.

Key stat: Utah is 5-0 under Kyle Whittingham when coming off a bye week.

Only touch with your father-in-law's cash:

Texas A&M +5.5 vs. Arkansas

Played at a neutral site, the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, it’s easy to take a knee-jerk reaction and go with the Hogs and lay the points. But the Aggies are averaging nearly 40 points per game, and only loss was 38-35 at Oklahoma State. Look for Arkansas to come out slow following the Alabama loss and a week off. This could be a revealing game that the supposed second-best team in the SEC could be in for a tight one.

Bengals -6.5 vs. Bucs

The Bengals struggled last week against the Browns, despite a big day from Terrell Owens. The Bucs are coming off a bye, and are mostly unproven, with wins over Cleveland and Carolina, and a blowout loss to Pittsburgh. It’s easy to read too much into one game, or think it carries over. The Bengals will do everything they can do avoid losing two straight going into a bye week.

Last week: 2-3 ATS

Overall: 13-11 ATS

Breakdown year to date:

401(k): 3-3

Piggy bank: 5-6

Father-in-law: 5-3

Willian vs. Farner vol. 1

Willian vs. Farner

Brent and I have debated sports and picks since high school. Now we're taking it to the Web for the world to see. In what could be a weekly feature, we’ll pick five college football games against the spread. And against each other.

Michigan State (+4) at Michigan

Brent: It's tough to pick against a team that has Denard Robinson, but at some point Michigan is going to have to stop the other team, which is something they've yet to do. Michigan has given up a combined 93 points to offensive juggernauts Massachusetts, Bowling Green and Indiana. Robinson will have his day and put up gaudy stats, but Michigan's poor defense will catch up with them, and ultimately Michigan State will come up with enough stops to leave Ann Arbor victorious. Michigan State 38, Michigan 34

Keith: The Wolverines' defense does play like Swiss cheese, but Robinson makes enough plays to cover 4 points at home. The last time they had a line this small, they got by Notre Dame on the road, the same team Michigan State had to use a fake field goal in overtime against to escape. Michigan 35, Michigan State 28

Alabama (-6.5) at South Carolina

Brent: Alabama got their close call out of the way in Fayetteville when they basically slept through the first half before rallying for the victory. They then turned around and absolutely dominated Florida. South Carolina has a good enough defense to keep it close, but an inconsistent offense. Inconsistent offense is very worrisome against a defense that held an Urban Meyer-coached offense to just two field goals last weekend. The Chickens' homefield advantage may help them to keep it close for a couple of quarters, but Mark Ingram will take over as usual, lead Alabama to a road victory, and give me 2 points in my double-shot pick of the week. Alabama 27, South Carolina 16

Keith: The last time Alabama was on the road in the SEC, it struggled big time at Arkansas. The Chickens have a lot better defense that the Hogs, their running game is more established, and they have tougher matchups in the receiving corps. Sure, Arkansas has a better quarterback, but try defending two 6-4 WRs. South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia is erratic, but he doesn't typically have back-to-back sub-par games. Don't discount the third straight tough game for Alabama, and perhaps the most overplayed stat since the summer, that this is the first of six straight opponents to play the Tide following its bye week. Alabama 28, South Carolina 23

Clemson (+2.5) at North Carolina

Brent: This was my coin-flip game. These two teams are very even. I am not at all confident that Clemson will come through in an important ACC road game, because they are not known for clutch performances. However, UNC has looked very vulnerable this season, and I like Clemson's running backs in this matchup.

Clemson 21, UNC 16

Keith: The favorite is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings, and covering a field goal at home, even with this depleted Tar Heel squad, should be manageable. While Clemson has a solid running game, it's yet to find a reliable group of receivers, which would hurt any last-minute comeback drive. The Heels have built confidence the last two games with a close win at Rutgers and a blowout against East Carolina. That's given them an identity, which they lacked to start the season. North Carolina 28, Clemson 24

Arizona (-8) vs. Oregon State

Brent: As a Louisville fan, I am well aware of the damage that Jacquizz & James Rodgers can do to an opponent. If this had been anymore than an 8-point spread, I likely wouldn't have gone with Arizona. But I watched Louisville move the ball with relative ease against Oregon State, and UofL would have put up even more points if not for two costly turnovers inside of OSU's 5-yard line. I expect Arizona to be able to move the ball successfully against an OSU defense that has a lot of holes. Arizona is holding opponents to just 11 points per game and the Rodgers brothers won't be able to dominate this defense as much as they have others. Arizona 34, Oregon State 24

Keith: Despite the win over Iowa, I'm not sold on Arizona yet, especially by more than a touchdown here. The Beavers have a reputation of steadily improving each week, more than most teams. The Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Arizona, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in the series. While the Louisville game was a disappointment for Beaver fans, they have played well on the road, especially against better opponents than Zona, TCU and Boise State. This is my double-shot pick of the week. Oregon State 31, Arizona 28

Illinois (+7.5) at Penn State

Brent: Another tough one. Illinois gave Ohio State all it wanted last weekend, and Penn State has had all kinds of trouble putting up points against legitimate competition this season. The difference in this one came down to the coaches. Joe Paterno against Ron Zook seems like a 1-16 matchup in the NCAA tournament. I can't see Illinois coming into University Park on Homecoming and beating Paterno's boys. Penn State will come away with a victory over Illinois, but just barely cover the spread. Penn State 21, Illinois 13

Keith: The Illini showed last week against Ohio State that they aren't as bad as everyone made them out to be in the summer. What's more, the underdog is 5-2 ATS and the road team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Not only has Penn State struggled overall, it's stumbled against the number, only covering against Kent State so far. As for the coaching matchup, that 1-16 might've been the case 10 years ago, but Zooker isn't that much worse than JoePa anymore. Penn State 21, Illinois 17

Oregon Duck does The Dougie

We first saw Braylon Edwards celebrate touchdown passes early this season with The Dougie. Now Oregon's mascot pulls it off on Saturday against Stanford. There aren't many things I enjoy more than a good mascot dance.